Iceland’s No Vote Is a Humiliation for the EU

In the wake of the Brexit vote in 2016, it soon became received wisdom across the West that the UK’s exit from the European Union was a unique event. Other Europeans, we have repeatedly been told, now finally understand the value of EU membership. Non-members and those on the fringes of Europe would surely queue up to join to avoid the UK’s ‘mistake’. After all, the ‘future’, it is often said, lies in the EU.

Iceland’s referendum on EU accession on Saturday has now exploded that narrative. Fifty-three per cent of Icelanders voted not only to remain outside of the EU, but also against even holding talks on EU membership.

The ‘Nei’ vote is a major setback for Iceland’s centre-left government. Although Iceland is already a member of the European Economic Area and has access to the EU Single Market, obtaining full EU membership was central to the government’s agenda. More significantly, it is a reasoned rejection of Brussels, in defiance of EU interference and elite fear-mongering.

EU supporters have, predictably, tried to play down the significance of the referendum defeat. Even before the results had come in, Iceland’s foreign minister said she feared a ‘Brexit moment’, blaming AI, foreign interference and ‘misinformation from the Nigel Farage playbook’. The pro-EU Politico has since accused the No side of fear-mongering about the loss of fishing rights. ‘It’s the fish, stupid’, quipped one article, as if voters had been duped by simplistic, nativist talking points rather than rational concerns for their nation’s future.

For one thing, there is nothing ‘stupid’ about fearing for Iceland’s fisheries under the EU. After all, fishing is no small fry for the Nordic island nation, making up around 15 per cent of Iceland’s GDP and 40 per cent of its exports. Assurances from the Icelandic government and EU officials that Iceland would receive certain carve-outs from EU fishing quotas clearly cut no ice with voters. And why would they have? Despite Brexit, the EU will retain control over the UK’s fishing waters for at least the next 11 years. Plans for an EU-UK defence pact have similarly been held up thanks to disputes over fish. Are Iceland’s vast fisheries really likely to be exempt from EU meddling?