By Western standards, we would expect any rational actor to choose the lesser of two evils, and in a race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, it sure looks like Iran is backing Harris. 

You couldn't blame them for that. Harris and Biden have been very good to Iran, while Trump killed their top IGRC General. They would be nuts not to back her. 

Iran wants U.S. voters to think Trump assassination attempt was a hoax, cyber intelligence firm Recorded Future sayshttps://t.co/DkZrD0x8sC pic.twitter.com/zy4SKzt4qH

— The Washington Times (@WashTimes) August 16, 2024

But I have been wondering about the indications that the Iran-funded riots in Chicago during the DNC haven't been called off--at least, the indications are that they haven't been. If they turn violent, as seems likely, that would be a bad look. 

Now add in this possibility--and this is just speculation: what if Iran's revenge attack against Israel comes next week during the Democrat National Convention? 

It would be a one-two punch. Violent riots and a massive attack on Israel while Biden is in Chicago and the Democrats celebrating the crowning of Kamala Harris. 

If I were an Iranian leader, I would be tempted to do the dirty deed. It might hurt the Democrats, which would be bad, but it sure would be sweet revenge on the Great Satan. 

I think Iran is a rational actor by their own lights; unlike many, I don't think they would be happy to have a nuclear exchange with Israel if they could help it, even if it were assured to wipe Israel off the map. It may be that your average Islamic Jihadist might consider blowing himself up, but I doubt any leader would be willing to sacrifice Tehran for the pleasure of destroying Tel Aviv. 

But that doesn't mean that the Iranian's version of rationality matches our own. It could easily be that the Ayatollahs would be willing to hurt the Democrats in America if they could humiliate our regime at a very vulnerable time. The tradeoff could easily seem worth it to them. 

After all, Hamas is willing to sacrifice much more in Gaza to turn world opinion against Israel. 

In the Middle East, Tehran is fighting against the Sunni regimes for political capital, and hatred for America runs high on the so-called "Arab street." If Iran could claim credit for bringing down the current American regime they could easily be willing to endure four years of Trump for the opportunity. It's not like Trump is going to bomb or invade them on a mass scale. 

This could explain the somersaults the Biden administration is performing right now to appease Iran and the pressure they are putting on Israel to make a deal with Hamas. They just announced a new "tentative" agreement, the details of which appear to be just another warmed-over American proposal and no deal at all. It could be real, but I doubt it. They pointedly say that the details will be worked out next week. 

Joint Statement from the United States, Egypt, and Qatar#MOFAQatar pic.twitter.com/A7myXPKsh3

— Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Qatar (@MofaQatar_EN) August 16, 2024

Is it real, or is it just a delaying tactic? I think the latter. Neither Hamas nor Israel actually looks like they are going to budge. 

Striking Israel during President Biden's valedictory speech on Monday would be a powerful move, President Biden reading his speech while Israel is attacked would be a bad look, with his speech becoming an equivalent to "My Pet Goat" in visuals. 

I am not exactly predicting that Iran has been holding off on its promised retaliation until next week, but if they are looking to harm both the Great Satan and the Little Satan at the same time, it would be a strong play. It has some cost to Iran, but they may consider the benefits to be worth the cost. 

Next week could be very interesting.