The Democrat base is not as monolithic as it appears most of the time. On issues such as the defense of Israel Democrat politicians are torn between the more establishment base, which supports Israel (despite being uncomfortable with many Israeli policies), and the activist base which hates Israel and is increasingly antisemitic.

You see the tension in Biden’s policies, which have been generally supportive of Israel but are moderating quickly, and his messaging, which is suddenly all about combating Islamophobia (which barely exists, and is nothing compared to antisemitism in scope).

As the conflict in Gaza has dragged on (in politics 3 weeks is a lifetime), Democrat elected officials are feeling the heat from their Left flank. The money comes from the establishment, but the activists get out the vote. And the activists are unhappy with Democrats right now.

So the unity of the Democrats is crumbling, and Democrats are starting to call for a cease-fire in Gaza.

My new Gaza statement:

"It's time for Israel's friends to recognize that the current approach is causing an unacceptable level of civilian harm and does not appear likely to achieve the goal of ending the threat from Hamas. I urge Israel to immediately reconsider its approach." pic.twitter.com/dVpGrjJFdp

— Chris Murphy 🟧 (@ChrisMurphyCT) November 2, 2023

Dick Durban was the first Senator to break ranks, followed by Chris Murphy. There will be others, and may already be as I wrote this yesterday.

Democrat Senator Dick Durbin calls for a "ceasefire" in Israel — the day after a spokesman for Hamas said they will commit terrorist attacks "again and again" until Israel is annihilated pic.twitter.com/Ago2SyuBcq

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) November 2, 2023

There is nothing surprising about the more diverse set of views in the House of Representatives, where political extremes tend to be more represented both due to the number of representatives and the nature of how they are elected. House members come from districts, while Senators represent states, which are more diverse.

So it’s one thing to have The Squad be the Hamas caucus; it’s another to have Senators break with the pro-Israel consensus.

Muslim Democrat Group Demands Biden Call for Israel–Hamas Ceasefire or Lose Their Support pic.twitter.com/2g49BnImQ6

— The Epoch Times (@EpochTimes) October 31, 2023

In general, neither Muslims nor Jews is a large enough voting bloc to swing elections. Jews are heavily concentrated in New York, California, and Florida, and none of these states will be in play in the next election.

But Michigan will, and Muslims matter in Michigan politics. This is one variable in the equation.

Another variable is the activists, who are surprisingly passionate in their hatred for Israel, which they see as a “settler colony,” not a legitimate state. Decades of Marxist and DEI education policies have created an activist class whose values deviate significantly from the older generations, and the pressure on Democrat politicians is immense. The Left flank is no longer a fringe within the Party but is rather where the energy comes from.

🧵27 days since Hamas terrorists massacred 1400 civilians. Israel delayed its invasion for weeks. Hamas leader JUST said they’ll launch endless 10/7-style attacks until Israel is annihilated. And major “pro-Israel” liberals are already going wobbly on Israeli self defense… pic.twitter.com/fbYRZEfwS6

— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 2, 2023

Yet another complication is that Biden’s Middle East policy has been to appease Iran, and support for Israel is a red line for them. The truth is that Iran will never be appeased, but never tell an Obama alum that. The US has been shipping money and doing favors for Iran since Biden took office, and he was so deep in the tank for Iran that he wound up making an Iranian spy his envoy to the country.

You can’t appease harder than to make a spy for the other side your negotiator.

Hamas’ attack blows that strategy out of the water, and any desire to salvage the attempt will require Biden to moderate on taking out Hamas.

All these variables mean one thing: Democrat unity on Israel will continue to crumble. Expect things to get worse.