We’re not going to declare a trend based on two polls, but what’s shaping up here is a major storyline for the fall if it’s borne out by further polling.
One of the mysteries of the campaign is how many Republicans are planning to cross the aisle and vote for Biden. I’ve seen several surveys that put that number in the vicinity of 10 percent. It’s assumed — without evidence — that many or most of those voters will also end up voting for Democrats downballot. For instance, the hardcore Never Trumpers at the Lincoln Project have taken to running ads lately against GOP senators on the theory that the president’s enablers, not just the president himself, must be punished with defeat this fall. Only by teaching them a hard lesson will the GOP learn that Trumpism is a losing bet electorally for everyone complicit in it. Once they’re gone, the party can rebuild and become … whatever the hell its next phase is.
But that assumption might be all wrong. There’s no reason to think Republicans who are voting for Biden are going full scorched-earth on the entire party. In fact, some of the polls showing Trump down big to Biden have found that his job approval is higher than his vote share in the head-to-head polling. That is, some GOPers think he’s doing a reasonably good job; they just prefer Biden, all things considered. They may not be Never Trumpers at all, just basically loyal Republicans who’ve concluded regrettably that POTUS wasn’t up to the task and it’s time to go in a different direction.