This result is so outlandish that the pollster opens the analysis of its own poll by noting that even Pennsylvania voters don’t really believe it. “Despite the challenger’s poll lead, voters are evenly divided on who they think will win the Keystone State’s electoral votes this year as a majority believe that their communities hold a number of ‘secret Trump voters,'” writes Monmouth. Americans remember only too well how badly the polls missed in the Rust Belt states that ended up handing Trump the presidency in 2016.
Here’s a weird but true fact, though: They didn’t miss by that much in Pennsylvania. Check out the final two and a half weeks of polling in PA in 2016 in reverse chronological order below. Except for that lone six-point lead for Hillary by Morning Call, the state was essentially a toss-up after Comey’s letter about reopening Emailgate appeared on October 28.
In the end the poll average missed by less than three points. With another week of polling, others may have detected the late break towards Trump that only Trafalgar picked up. As it is, the myth of a massive polling error in PA in 2016 is just that, a myth. (The myth of a massive polling error in Wisconsin is … less of a myth.)