Biden’s (probably) not going to win Ohio, a state that went for Trump by eight points in 2016. The significance of this poll comes from what it portends for more competitive battlegrounds that’ll decide the election. If Ohio is a tight race right now then all of the polls lately showing Biden ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and even Florida begin to look more plausible.
Trump leads Biden, 32.2% to 31.1% among those who said they “definitely” would vote for one candidate or the other. But among others who said they “probably” would, Biden led, 13.8% to 12%.
That gave Biden an overall lead of 44.9%. to 44.2% in the poll, well within the margin of error. The rest said they were unsure.
There’s good and bad news for the president in terms of how he’s faring with senior citizens, a group that’s deserted him in some other recent polling. The good news is that he’s still ahead among that demographic in Ohio, leading Biden 47.7/44.5. The bad news is that he clobbered Hillary Clinton in the 65+ group four years ago, 56/43. He’s lost 10 net points over his Democratic opponent.