I’m thinking no. After two elections in which Republicans overperformed their polling in FL, the GOP is the favorite until Democrats prove they can win there again. Trump’s upset of Hillary in 2016 suggested that right-leaning voters in the panhandle are being chronically undercounted by pollsters. The double-barreled victories of Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott in 2018, a Democratic wave year, appeared to confirm it. Trump is the favorite.
But he’s a modest favorite and may be getting more modest by the day. All of the hype about Florida’s Republican drift over the past few years has led partisans on both sides to treat it at times as though it were a safe-ish red state. We hear lots of chatter about Biden contending in the Rust Belt, not as much about him contending in Florida. But after this new Quinnipiac poll of the state, his lead there in RCP’s poll average is actually higher than it is in Wisconsin and close to what it is in Pennsylvania. POTUS is going to have play defense in his (new) home state.
There’s another reason Florida should be on our radar, which you already know from reading this post last night. In a word: Seniors. The single biggest shift in the national electorate so far in the 2020 race is among voters 65 and older, who went from firmly favoring Trump in 2016 to even more firmly favoring Biden at the moment. That’s a deadly threat to Trump’s campaign if it doesn’t change before November. And an especially deadly threat in Florida, given how many senior citizens live there.