Last month he was at 30 percent. This month, says Monmouth, he’s at 16. Nearly half his support, up in smoke.
That’s what happens when you’re an “electability” candidate who turns out to be not so electable.
Shhhh. It’ll all be over soon.
Buttigieg is the clearest beneficiary of Biden’s collapse but you can see a few Joe voters bleeding off to Bernie (they each appeal to working-class voters, albeit in different ways) and to Mike Bloomberg. It’d be easy to ignore a result like this one and that terrible Quinnipiac result yesterday if Biden were up six points in New Hampshire and set to rebound with a win, but as it is he’s staring at a fifth-place finish tonight. Where will some of his more diehard supporters go in the next round of polling after the electability argument for him takes another devastating hit?
This number is interesting too:
You might not think that a politician’s favorable rating would suffer just because he lost an election. He is who he is, after all, win or lose. But everyone loves a winner and Joe is no longer a (presumptive) winner. The only time he’s been under 70 percent in favorability among Democrats was last summer, not long after Kamala Harris wobbled him with their exchange on busing at the first debate. Now, post-Iowa, he’s down to 64/26, good for a +38 net rating. He led the field in that category as recently as last month, when voting was finally set to begin. Now he’s third behind Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Pete Buttigieg, at +36, is right behind him and Klobuchar isn’t far behind either at +31. If both of those candidates do well tonight, as is now expected, Biden could be fifth in favorability next month.
There’s another national poll out today to complement Monmouth and Quinnipiac. The good news for Joe is that he’s a closer second here. The bad news is that he’s still second, a position he’s hardly ever occupied in national polling since entering the race last April. New from Morning Consult:
The story here is the same as in Monmouth’s poll. Biden has lost a meaningful number of points since last month (six in this case) while Biden, Bloomberg, and especially Buttigieg have gained. Combine this result with the Monmouth and Quinnipiac polls and it’s only the second time since he entered the race last April that he’s trailed in three straight national surveys. And even during that previous dry spell, he never came anywhere near the depths to which he’s sunk right now in the poll average. The green line says it all:
Note the yellow line too. That’s Bloomberg, who’s now up to fourth nationally and is knocking on the door of third. Bloomberg’s been in double digits in five of the last six polls and trails Biden by an average of just four points in the three national polls taken since Iowa. If Warren and Biden do as badly tonight in New Hampshire as the data suggests they will, it’s entirely possible — maybe likely — that Bloomberg will move up to second place nationally as the “Stop Bernie” contingent in the party panics and starts looking around desperately for a viable candidate.
One more data point from Monmouth: Fully 66 percent of Americans now believe Trump will definitely or probably be reelected this fall. Among Republicans, 59 percent think their guy will definitely win; among Democrats, just 11 percent think their nominee definitely will. That difference is partly a function of incumbency, of course, but it must also be that Biden’s sudden decline has shaken Democrats’ faith in producing an “electable” alternative to Trump. They’re getting demoralized. And there’s no obvious viable option right now who’s going to turn that around for the entire party.