Pollmania: Brown leads by seven in ARG, ties Coakley in Daily Kos

Apologies if Ed’s already covered this, but there’s only one thing people want to talk about and so much info flying around that we’re bound to repeat ourselves at some point. Two new polls out within the last few hours, each with problems but credible enough to warrant flagging. Kos’s pollster, Research 2000, has Brown erasing an eight-point Coakley lead last week to make the race a dead heat at 48, which is right in line with every other survey showing big mo on his side. Even so, I don’t buy this detail:

Daily Kos added a favorability question, and there Coakley has a slight edge over Brown, with 58% favorable-31% unfavorable to his 51%-30%. Both are in positive territory, though, and there’s no time to capitalize on her edge in any case.

Coakley, whose own supporters in the Kennedy clan can’t even remember her name, now has a seven-point edge in favorables on Mr. Excitement? ‘Fraid not, kids. Just three days ago, Suffolk had Brown’s favorables at +38 versus just +8 for Coakley; five days before that, PPP had Brown at +32 and Coakley again at +8. Even allowing for some erosion in his numbers from her campaign’s “rape” smears, ain’t no way that she’s overtaken him or is remotely near anything like +27 herself.

As for ARG, about which I’ve cautioned you before, it’s sunshine and candy canes for Scotty B:

Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 52% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy according to a telephone survey conducted January 15-17 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19.

Brown leads Coakley 97% to 1% among registered Republicans and he leads 64% to 32% among unenrolled voters. Coakley leads Brown 73% to 23% among registered Democrats

A total of 8% of likely voters say they have already voted by absentee ballot, with Brown leading Coakley 54% to 44%, with 2% for Kennedy.

97/1 is an unlikely break even among jacked-up conservatives, but 73/23 among Democrats isn’t so far-fetched: More than one poll taken a few days ago showed him pulling 17 percent of Dems. MKH notes that he’s actually picked up two points among women in this one, which may be a sign of a backlash to the “rape” smear or may just be momentum working its momentum-y magic. AP pessimism meter level: 0.5, the lowest possible reading, indicating razor-thin defeat spun as glorious moral victory.

To keep you fired up, a little video treat from yesterday’s “people’s rally.”