Suffolk poll: Brown 50, Coakley 46

posted at 10:20 pm on January 14, 2010 by Allahpundit

Oh … my.

Although Brown’s 4-point lead over Democrat Martha Coakley is within the Suffolk University/7News survey’s margin of error, the underdog’s position at the top of the results stunned even pollster David Paleologos.

“It’s a Brown-out,” said Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center. “It’s a massive change in the political landscape.”…

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided…

Yet even in the bluest state, it appears Kennedy’s quest for universal health care has fallen out of favor, with 51 percent of voters saying they oppose the “national near-universal health-care package” and 61 percent saying they believe the government cannot afford to pay for it.

The difference in favorables is enormous. Coakley? 49/41. Brown? 57/19. Even worse for Coakley, 64 percent of voters think she’ll win — precisely the sort of complacency that has Dems terrified about turnout.

AP pessimism meter check: 1.0, down from 1.5 earlier today, indicating likely chances of a long night of ballot-counting that ends in razor-thin, tear-stained defeat.

Update: Just noticed upon re-reading that Suffolk has the same number of Dems crossing for Brown as PPP did last weekend — 17 percent, a shocking amount. Also shocking:

The poll surveyed a carefully partitioned electorate meant to match voter turnout: 39 percent Democrat, 15 percent Republican and 45 percent unenrolled.

The Democratic sample is +24 — and Scott Brown still leads?

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Comments

Let’s see what the White House starts doing over the weekend. An arms-length detachment from Coakley will be a clear indicator that they think she’s toast.

EMD on January 15, 2010 at 7:39 AM

Does Ace have skulls up yet?

victor82 on January 15, 2010 at 7:28 AM

He had the skull up last night…maybe a double skull if the Roger Simon poll of Brown up by 15 is for real?

lukespapa on January 15, 2010 at 7:45 AM

Hey! Where is my post? Is dumbazz a bad worn or sumptin? I was referring to me.

BigAlSouth on January 15, 2010 at 7:42 AM

Certain words will get a post into moderation, and they probably will post, if the usage of such word isn’t overly offensive.

MNHawk on January 15, 2010 at 7:48 AM

Did anyone take the BG poll to the right of the article?
The Herald Pulse…Oh My Oh My!…
lol !

jerrytbg on January 15, 2010 at 6:57 AM

Everyone needs to go and vote in the poll…this was a great article–thanks!

lovingmyUSA on January 15, 2010 at 7:49 AM

Coakley will be coming out of her Bunker today for events that include Bill Clinton, John Kerry and Congressman Jim McGovern. Then, according to the schedule of events on her web page, she’ll stay in her Bunker until the Election. Her handlers obviously realize that she doesn’t do well around people who refuse to drink the Kool-Aid.

ronnyraygun on January 15, 2010 at 7:51 AM

Does Ace have skulls up yet?

victor82 on January 15, 2010 at 7:28 AM

Had it up last night…

lovingmyUSA on January 15, 2010 at 7:52 AM

I live here. MA politicians, from the governor to the dog catcher, are the most corrupt, self-important, self-centered, self-righteous, dishonest, holier-than-tho crooks I’ve ever seen.

They are not going to stand by and just watch Brown win the seat that they believe they bought and paid for.

There will be massive voter fraud with ballot box stuffing, dead people voting, union people bussed in from out of state, illegal aliens paid to vote, voter intimidation, and truck-loads of absentee-ballots gone missing.

Being up by four won’t help. Those in the know here predict that Brown has to be up by 10 to win. Anything less will be stolen by the dems.

Rod on January 15, 2010 at 7:56 AM

Rod,
Minn. Roux …the plot thickens…’)

jerrytbg on January 15, 2010 at 8:06 AM

Just sent him another $50 for the final weekend push.

angryed on January 15, 2010 at 8:08 AM

Brown is up to 32 on intrade. Still the underdog obviosly, but he was at 10 a couple of weeks ago and at 20 yesterday.

angryed on January 15, 2010 at 8:10 AM

ronnyraygun on January 15, 2010 at 7:51 AM

color me a little surprised that slick willy would leave haiti to stump for her…

cmsinaz on January 15, 2010 at 8:11 AM

It’s not just that the Blue Dogs are going to be afraid for their jobs if Brown wins. It’s that they’re going to see a shining example of how they can WIN. They were elected on a conservative agenda (or at least in conservative-leaning districts). Now, if they would only listen to their constituents, they can be easily re-elected in this environment. Their masters may not like it, but the people will.

Expect a lot of Blue Dogs to suddenly grow a spine – but not necessarily out of *fear.*

Missy on January 15, 2010 at 8:11 AM

I’m not a resident of Mass either and it was the first time I sent money to a candidate outside my state. Now that I think about it, I’ve never given money to a candidate in my state. Here in NY it never seemed worth it. Times may be a changin’.

I can’t until Tuesday! I pray he pulls this off and the people of Mass elect Brown.

NYconservative on January 15, 2010 at 8:12 AM

I would be willing to bet the actually end spread is going to be a lot bigger in favor of Brown.

Lets just hope Martha KEEPS TALKING. She must have been getting speaking lessons from biden.

RealMc on January 15, 2010 at 8:21 AM

I guess I’ll pick-up Omaha’s slack while he’s away.
Contribute to the Lt. Colonel Scott Brown Campaign HERE.

ronnyraygun on January 15, 2010 at 8:29 AM

Look for some slander of Brown from left, right before election. Something that later after election, will be proven untrue.

Ed Laskie on January 15, 2010 at 8:30 AM

reminder again, MASS went for Hillary over Obama in our primaries, lots of we MOD dems in MASS

ginaswo on January 15, 2010 at 8:37 AM

thanks ronnie!

ginaswo on January 15, 2010 at 8:37 AM

Time to bring in the big gun….Joe Biden….

Look for some slander of Brown from left, right before election. Something that later after election, will be proven untrue.

Ed Laskie on January 15, 2010 at 8:30 AM

The most obvious post of this year…you are absolutely correct. As the sun rises, so shall the liberal slander machine.
With her in the “bunker”, she won’t have to answer any questions regarding those slanders.
This time it will backfire…

right2bright on January 15, 2010 at 8:37 AM

It’s looking good for Brown/U.S., but I’m still skeptical. Never underestimate the corruption of the Democrat machine, I say.

If Brown wins, The People have just introduced Zero and his cronies to the second Boston Tea Party.

SoldiersMom on January 15, 2010 at 8:39 AM

It’s looking good for Brown/U.S., but I’m still skeptical. Never underestimate the corruption of the Democrat machine, I say.

SoldiersMom on January 15, 2010 at 8:39 AM

Not only the corruption, but this time it is truly a no question about it, liberal democrat senate…they have held it for 57 years, and we have for only 8 out of the last 76 years.
This will be the biggest upset perhaps ever in a senate race…
I’m not sure even the dems have the machinery to change the outcome…

right2bright on January 15, 2010 at 8:42 AM

Brown by 4.5

PatriotRider on January 15, 2010 at 8:46 AM

Can’t wait to hear Baghdad Bob Gibbs explain this away.

Akzed on January 15, 2010 at 8:52 AM

“She even admits that she ran a woeful campaign, primarily by not getting the president more involved,” -Baghdad Bob, Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2010.

Akzed on January 15, 2010 at 8:57 AM

SoldiersMom on January 15, 2010 at 8:39 AM is on target.

A Brown win will set dem folks on their ear(s) and show dem that backdoor, backroom, backstabbing, is what you get voting (D).

The true miracle cleaner and world’s best antibacterial is ‘sunshine’. Let the sun shine and blind dem and clean dem up.

When Brown wins he should invite Ms. Cokley in for a cup of Tea at Boston’s Harbor.

MSGTAS on January 15, 2010 at 9:01 AM

I’m not quite ready to believe polls that show Brown ahead. We need to keep working like we’re 5 points behind. That’s why I am going to Mass. today and joining the campaign for the push to the end.

t.ferg on January 15, 2010 at 9:12 AM

Given those numbers, some Democrats, eager to distance Obama from any electoral failure, are beginning to compare Coakley to Creigh Deeds, the losing Democratic candidate in the Virginia governor’s race last year. Deeds ran such a lackluster campaign, Democrats say, that his defeat could be solely attributed to his own shortcomings, and should not be seen as a referendum on President Obama’s policies or those of the national Democratic party

Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion

ted c on January 15, 2010 at 9:15 AM

Is anyone else experiencing a posting delay?

ted c on January 15, 2010 at 9:21 AM

I hope they have lots of tough guy lawyers ready to be poll watchers for Brown. Me thinks the Dem cheating machine will be gassing up this week-end.

anniekc on January 15, 2010 at 9:24 AM

Rod,
Minn. Roux …the plot thickens…’)

jerrytbg on January 15, 2010 at 8:06 AM

I got that, but only b/c I’m taking culinary classes right now.

Dark-Star on January 15, 2010 at 9:24 AM

Again I say … support Scott Brown – but don’t expect a miracle. The goal here should be to turn this into a “surprising” showing. If he wins – great – but I don’t think he will.

The polls are all over the place – Brown up 15, Coakley up 15, Brown up 2, Coakley up 4. When you get into that situation there is no “bead” on what is truth out there.

So I think it best to go with history here – and just note that Mass voters kept putting Kennedy into this seat for over 40 years after he killed a woman, attempted to lie about it, and covered it up. Don’t expect that any “mediocrity” on the part of Coakley will suddenly turn them.

Just do the best we can with this one and not hope for a miracle. If it comes – it comes – and it’ll be a bombshell if it comes.

HondaV65 on January 15, 2010 at 9:24 AM

Trouble is, the sample did not include any representation of the dead people who nontheless are likely to vote.

EconomicNeocon on January 15, 2010 at 9:25 AM

Is anyone else experiencing a posting delay?

ted c on January 15, 2010 at 9:21 AM

What

right2bright on January 15, 2010 at 9:25 AM

delay

right2bright on January 15, 2010 at 9:25 AM

I live here. MA politicians, from the governor to the dog catcher, are the most corrupt, self-important, self-centered, self-righteous, dishonest, holier-than-tho crooks I’ve ever seen.

They are not going to stand by and just watch Brown win the seat that they believe they bought and paid for.

There will be massive voter fraud with ballot box stuffing, dead people voting, union people bussed in from out of state, illegal aliens paid to vote, voter intimidation, and truck-loads of absentee-ballots gone missing.

Being up by four won’t help. Those in the know here predict that Brown has to be up by 10 to win. Anything less will be stolen by the dems.

Rod on January 15, 2010 at 7:56 AM

This bears repeating to avoid complacency.

…. although I will say that it appears Scott Brown and the Tea Party movement learned one thing from the Hoffmann race – limit outside support to monetary (and therefore silent) means to avoid pissing off the locals about other states meddling in their own elections. We should all remember this for November.

Animator Girl on January 15, 2010 at 9:38 AM

I hate to get over confident. Somewhere in the shadows George Soros is lurking.

redridinghood on January 15, 2010 at 9:40 AM

Do I dare to dream?

PappaMac on January 15, 2010 at 9:43 AM

Being up by four won’t help. Those in the know here predict that Brown has to be up by 10 to win. Anything less will be stolen by the dems.

Rod on January 15, 2010 at 7:56 AM

Yep, been saying it – he’s got to win by a margin so large they can’t steal it. Hell, in races like Franken and the WA governor’s race they did it – this Senate seat is far more important symbolically if nothing else – they will *not* stop ‘finding’ and counting ballots for Coakley until she wins.

Midas on January 15, 2010 at 9:46 AM

Is anyone else experiencing a posting delay?

ted c on January 15, 2010 at 9:21 AM

Yep, I thought that it was just my computer, so I rebooted. Good to know I’m not alone.

redridinghood on January 15, 2010 at 9:47 AM

thanks, I thought i was being watched….

ted c on January 15, 2010 at 9:54 AM

I hope they have lots of tough guy lawyers ready to be poll watchers for Brown. Me thinks the Dem cheating machine will be gassing up this week-end.

anniekc on January 15, 2010 at 9:24 AM

Call in the “Patriot Riders” or Veterans for Brown?

I’m sure its’ been said somewhere above but I can’t resist:

CHICKENS, COMMIN HOME, TO ROOOOST!

dhunter on January 15, 2010 at 10:12 AM

I live here. MA politicians, from the governor to the dog catcher, are the most corrupt, self-important, self-centered, self-righteous, dishonest, holier-than-tho crooks I’ve ever seen.

They are not going to stand by and just watch Brown win the seat that they believe they bought and paid for.

There will be massive voter fraud with ballot box stuffing, dead people voting, union people bussed in from out of state, illegal aliens paid to vote, voter intimidation, and truck-loads of absentee-ballots gone missing.

Being up by four won’t help. Those in the know here predict that Brown has to be up by 10 to win. Anything less will be stolen by the dems.

Rod on January 15, 2010 at 7:56 AM

This is an area where I believe the GOP can be helpful. Make sure this can’t happen by ensuring proper poll watching at least. Otherwise, it appears letting Brown run his race is working. Keep the polls honest! I would be willing to have a purple finger for a week. Good luck to Scott and his supporters. Get out and vote!

riverrat10k on January 15, 2010 at 10:17 AM

Mass voters: RomneyCare > ObamaCare

jp on January 15, 2010 at 10:20 AM

thanks, I thought i was being watched….

ted c on January 15, 2010 at 9:54 AM

And thanks to you, ted, I can’t seem to get this sticky, blue blood off my fingers and it is playing hell with my typing. You owe me a keyboard!

riverrat10k on January 15, 2010 at 10:23 AM

BOSTON is SAN FRANCISCO(east)….Pray!

Nalea on January 15, 2010 at 10:29 AM

I have sent Brown $100. With that said I think we may be counting chickens before they hatch. I am optimistic, but this is massivetwoshits. If they were to elect an even moderatly reasonable person to the senate it could wreck thier reputation. Are they ready for that?

chicken thief on January 15, 2010 at 10:29 AM

Hell, I’ll be humping my TV that night if Brown pulls this off.

Monica on January 14, 2010 at 10:24 PM

heh

PatriotRider on January 15, 2010 at 10:32 AM

Massachusetts Miracle

Dasher on January 15, 2010 at 10:33 AM

Fenway fans
Hockey fans
Catholics

Who hasn’t she insulted?

UnderstandingisPower on January 15, 2010 at 10:37 AM

Money quote from NRO:

When asked, during an interview, about her foreign-policy experience, Coakley cited visiting her sister overseas.

miles on January 15, 2010 at 10:38 AM

Errr. What?

Martha Coakley: (……uh, eh…um..) The law says that people are allowed to have that (religious freedom). You can have religious freedom but you probably shouldn’t work in the emergency room.

In an audio interview, Coakley continued to push her poll numbers lower. She perverted the separation of church and state and the conscience clause in birth control. This ought to get much wider play. She is a far bigger gaffe-o-matic than Joe Biden at this point.

http://washingtontimes.com/weblogs/watercooler/2010/jan/14/martha-coakley-devout-catholics-probably-shouldnt-/

ted c on January 15, 2010 at 10:47 AM

This interview noted above occurred—–yesterday….

ted c on January 15, 2010 at 10:47 AM

I just pledged $100.

Go Scott Go!

RockificationSpacification on January 15, 2010 at 10:51 AM

We are doing this. This is happening. Lets Roll. Kick the Tires and Light the Fires.

Holger on January 15, 2010 at 10:56 AM

.. and just note that Mass voters kept putting Kennedy into this seat for over 40 years after he killed a woman, attempted to lie about it, and covered it up.

HondaV65 on January 15, 2010 at 9:24 AM

I liver in MA, Coakley is no Kennedy. All the houses in our post WWII neighborhood had velvet Elvis portraits and JFK portraits on the wall. Elvis is gone, but even my wife (who votes repub) still has the JFK. They can’t let go of the myth. It doesn’t transfer to Coakley tho, it’s a Kennedy thing not a Dem thing.

Alden Pyle on January 15, 2010 at 10:57 AM

Hah liver = live

Alden Pyle on January 15, 2010 at 10:57 AM

Scott Brown’s Brown Shirts will defeat the brown nosing curling iron Chokely next week.

moonbatkiller on January 15, 2010 at 11:13 AM

The Fireball
Equal parts of:
Gin
Tonic
Vodka
Ice
Drambuie

Stir. Sip.

MA nearly lost the Nation with Shays Rebellion by the elites in Boston putting huge taxes on the rural poor, and then imprisoning them.

Now MA can save the Nation by killing off the very same high tax items that again threaten our Union.

If not the Shaysites will return.

ajacksonian on January 15, 2010 at 11:21 AM

Being up by four won’t help. Those in the know here predict that Brown has to be up by 10 to win. Anything less will be stolen by the dems.

Rod on January 15, 2010 at 7:56 AM

Time to call in the black panthers from Philadelphia to ensure the victory for Teddy.

jerseyman on January 15, 2010 at 11:32 AM

“Spots attacking Brown often run back to back [on Boston TV] , as the Democratic state and national parties and outside groups backing Coakley, such as the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), attempt to halt the Republican’s surge in the polls and in fund-raising, in a race for the seat held by Edward M. Kennedy for nearly 47 years, once thought to be impregnable to Republican challengers.”

The national Democrats are piling on, really hard. Once they’re done, it might be understandable for Massachusetts voters to think Scott Brown should be on the FBI most wanted list.

Despite all their Herculean efforts, though, the Democrats might just lose this one (!!!). And, even if they don’t lose, the rest of the politicos in D.C. have got to be scared out of their wits, looking at how hard it’s been to win this election!

MTF on January 15, 2010 at 11:49 AM

This race may show what we are facing in 2012 and 2014 as the Dems pull out all the stops to ‘win’ even if they receive fewer votes than the Republican challengers. Obama is steering this ship towards a long-term, permanent presidency. The more people ‘give up’ on the economy, national security, and jobs, the more passive the people will become. They will give up and let the dems take over for good. Obama just needs to keep piling on until the people break. This is the Olinsky/Obama plan all along. This is revolutionary thinking at its best. He wants high employment, economic melt-down, increased terrorism, so he can step in on an indefinite/permanent basis (following in the foot steps of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, (or Zumaya in Honduras ?)). The pundits are ‘surprised’ that Obama does not seem to know politics, listen to the people, or know what he is doing. As Obama stated, it is all working as expected – only he is looking at a different end goal/result than we are. The MA election will show us how desperate the dems will be to retain power and the extent to which they are willing to go to steal elections.

jerseyman on January 15, 2010 at 11:55 AM

I just read on the Washington Times via Ace via Instapundit that Brown’s such a good campaigner, the Democrats couldn’t beat him in the 2004 special election in which he gained his State Senate seat. When, as one Dem operative stated, “we cheated” – they set that election up on the day of the Dem presidential primary, when few Republicans would be expected to vote. He then won it again a few months later during the 2004 election.

Wow. We need us some of that mojo in the rest of the party.

JeffWeimer on January 15, 2010 at 11:59 AM

I have to say that the mushroom cloud for liberal fiascos is always a welcome sight.

I never tire of it.

BuckeyeSam on January 15, 2010 at 12:03 PM

jerseyman on January 15, 2010 at 11:55 AM

My feeling is that at least three good things will come from the Haiti earthquake.

First, it’s an opportunity for mankind to reach out and assist others in need. I deeply regret the circumstances, but the situation does present us with the opportunity to assist or ignore.

Second, many Americans will see the strength of America in action and realize that that strength reflects values and policies other than those espoused by Obama and his administration.

Third, many Americans will look at the problems of Haiti that are magnified by this calamity and realize that Obama’s values and policies lead to the kind of state in which Haiti has existed.

BuckeyeSam on January 15, 2010 at 12:11 PM

I want to be there when Brown is introduced to Chuck “far right teabagger” Schumer

PatriotRider on January 15, 2010 at 12:19 PM

This is GREAT news for ALL Americans!

And if the Obamateur-in-Chief does decide to visit Massachusettes to “prop up” Ms. Coke-lie, I hope the Tea Partiers show up en masse to show him what they now think of his Hopey/Changey smokescreen that bamboozled a naiive electorate.

Maybe we should call Scott Brown’s election run “reverse Hopey/Changey”.

Sweet_Thang on January 15, 2010 at 12:29 PM

The dems automatically have 10 days (while they’re waiting for military and absentee ballots) to come up with whatever deficit they need.

As long as we have corrupt people enforcing laws/procedures and no way to make them honest, both the rule of law and the will of the people are irrelevant.

http://tinyurl.com/ya8hsxm

justincase on January 15, 2010 at 12:40 PM

what a nail biter.

Terrye on January 15, 2010 at 2:57 PM

I will be stunned if Brown wins. What a miracle. Obama and the other libs will see we mean business in 2010.

Bikerchick on January 15, 2010 at 3:44 PM

Dark-Star on January 15, 2010 at 9:24 AM

heh !… not too subtle…I was worried…not…’)
If I had the money I could’ve gone to CIA…Chose sailing…
I you read this…where are you studying?

jerrytbg on January 15, 2010 at 5:14 PM

Something else about this poll needs to be considered. A minor point maybe. Neither the TV station nor the University conducting the poll are what you might call Republican friendly.

dogsoldier on January 15, 2010 at 5:39 PM

jerrytbg on January 15, 2010 at 5:14 PM

Metropolitan Community, in Omaha. You?

Dark-Star on January 15, 2010 at 7:34 PM

It just occurred to me to ask this question, but what exactly were the politics that led to this special election at this time? Couldn’t Mass. just have had Kirk serve the term through 2010, and hold an election for the seat in November?

JohnGalt23 on January 15, 2010 at 7:38 PM

Dark-Star,

As I stated above, back in the late 70’s I was accepted at the Culinary Institute of America in New Hyde Park NY…It would have tapped me out, $15,000 /yr +/-. Don’t remember the exact amount…Definitely 5 figures…Decided to go sailing instead.
I have this knack for varying recipes to get some interesting results. Friends stand in line to eat my mistakes … Got some killer recipes for game meat…
I don’t know if it would be acceptable to post em’ here…but they’re good . Simple too.
Good luck with the endeavor and don’t be afraid to experiment.

jerrytbg on January 15, 2010 at 8:49 PM

Hmmmm…..this makes me wonder. The Suffolk poll was WAY off for the NJ gov election in Corzine’s favor (+9.)

Does that mean Brown gets a landslide???

http://www.suffolk.edu/38934.html

njpat on January 16, 2010 at 8:39 PM