Wagner boss offered to give Ukrainians positions of Russian army in exchange for Bakhmut

(Sergei Ilnitsky/Pool Photo via AP)

There’s lots of evidence that the leader of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian military do not get along. Prigozhin has complained for months that the military was sabotaging his efforts to take Bakhmut by failing to deliver ammunition as promised. Last week, after some of his own forces retreated from the city, he claimed the regular military had abandoned their positions surrounding the city and lost five square kilometers of ground in a day.

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But this morning the Washington Post is reporting that Prigozhin offered a secret deal to the Ukrainian military. He would give them the positions of Russian military troops in exchange for the city of Bakhmut.

Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.

Prigozhin has publicly feuded with Russian military commanders, who he furiously claims have failed to equip and resupply his forces, which have provided vital support to Moscow’s war effort. But he is also an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who might well regard Prigozhin’s offer to trade the lives of Wagner fighters for Russian soldiers as a treasonous betrayal.

The first offer happened in late January. Prigozhin was under pressure to deliver a win for the war effort. He specifically promised that he would take Bakhmut in time for Russia’s annual Victory Day parade which took place last Tuesday, a deadline he didn’t meet.

So is this treason or something else? Honestly, I wouldn’t put it past Prigozhin who seems to mostly care about his own growing power in Russia more than anything else. But ultimately the Ukrainians didn’t believe his offer was on the level and neither did the US.

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Two Ukrainian officials confirmed that Prigozhin has spoken several times to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, known as HUR. One official said that Prigozhin extended the offer regarding Bakhmut more than once, but that Kyiv rejected it because officials don’t trust Prigozhin and thought his proposals could have been disingenuous.

A U.S. official also cautioned that there are similar doubts in Washington about Prigozhin’s intentions.

It’s possible that the whole idea was cooked up in Putin’s office. Offer the Ukrainians some bogus troop locations and in return Russia gets the one thing it desperately needs, a win. But even if that’s not the case, I’m guessing that’s how Prigozhin would explain it if asked. He was trying to get a win and if he could do that by lying to the Ukrainians so much the better.

According to the leaked documents, the Ukrainians believed the Kremlin was already aware that Prigozhin was meeting with Ukrainian intelligence, so that won’t come as a surprise. It’s hard to believe he would have done that without Putin’s blessing but who knows. Maybe he really was desperate enough to try this on his own.

Yesterday, Jazz wrote about the very bad day the Russian air force had on Saturday, losing two jets and two helicopters in a single day. As Jazz pointed out there were suspicions early on that these aircraft may have been downed by friendly fire. Prigozhin has joined in by agreeing with that assessment.

“Four planes, — if you draw a circle in the places of their fall, it turns out that this circle has a diameter (and all of them lie exactly in a circle) of 40 kilometers (25 miles). … Now go on the Internet and see what kind of air defense weapon could be in the center of this circle, and then build your own versions,” Prigozhin said on Telegram.

Prigozhin, whose forces are in the thick of a grinding monthslong battle for the city of Bakhmut, clarified that he was not “in the know” about the situation. But he has repeatedly criticized the Russian military for its strategy in Ukraine and for allegedly failing to supply Wagner with the ammunition it needs in Bakhmut.

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Prigozhin continues to badmouth the Russian military even as his own troops have come up with nothing. I continue to wonder at what point Putin will just pull the plug on one side of this argument or the other. Here’s Prigozhin attacking the military for abandoning their lines last week.

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