Rumors of a Carney-Val Prize for the Nobel Syrupean Leader As Trade Deal Doors Slam Shut

AP Photo/Markus Schreiber, File

The Trump administration's ban on certain Canadian booze, motorcycles, and dairy took effect at 12:01 AM on September 29.

Sounds harsh, huh? Big mean Orange Man is punishing the Canadians by banning their whiskey, etc., from entering the U.S., all because their tiny little Prime Minister, Mark Carney, walked away from trade negotiations in a performance-theater piece. Carney's hoping to impact his political party's fortunes in upcoming regional elections by acting tough.

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And here's Trump, always punching down on the poor Syrupeans.

What many people don't realize, as I didn't until just now, is that the Canadians have always been a piece of performance theater. That country has become quite comfortable getting away with it, in terms of trade with their much larger and far more benevolent-than-they-should-be neighbor.

Take this booze thing. The Trump 'ban' isn't a complete crackdown. 

...As of Tuesday at 12:01 a.m. ET, U.S. bans are in effect on some Canadian alcohol products, dairy byproducts, motorcycles and molasses, shutting certain producers out of the U.S. market entirely.

There are carve-outs...

...But the ban won't apply to barrels of certain kinds of liquor over a certain volume, and tariffs were removed from bulk shipments of certain whiskies and liqueurs when the heightened trade measures were announced earlier this month.

That move will spare big, multinational spirits companies that have bottling and mixing facilities on both sides of the border from some of the impact of the ban, according to Glasgow — leaving smaller players feeling the brunt.

...which, as is the Canadian way, will only hurt their mid-level and smaller distillers and distributors.

...With import bans stopping the flow of some alcohol products in their tracks, there are lots of individual business owners who stand to be hurt by the ban, according to international trade lawyer with KPMG Law, Robert Glasgow, even if the macro impact isn't massive.

Spirits producers could be hit particularly hard because Canada sends more liquor to the U.S. than it does beer or wine. The U.S. imported $673 million US worth of spirits from Canada in 2025, compared to $62.1 million US worth of wine and just $19.2 million US worth of beer that same year, according to trade data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Spirits Canada, the national trade association for the spirits industry, says about 93 per cent of spirits sent outside of Canada are destined for the States — making the loss of the "very important" U.S. market concerning, according to the group's president, Cal Bricker.

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What I didn't realize is that a year and a half after Canadians first went into a snit fit, pulling U.S. booze from their shelves over Trump's announcement of tariff schemes?

...Alcohol has been a focal point in the trade battle since the start, when most Canadian premiers pulled U.S.-made bottles from the shelves of provincially run liquor stores in March 2025 in response to the U.S. imposing tariffs on Canada.

The move drew criticism from political leaders in certain regions of the U.S. where certain types of spirits are made — like Kentucky, where Gov. Andy Beshear appealed to leaders in this country to rethink the move, as it threatened bourbon makers in his state.

Only in Alberta have private-run liquor stores lifted their ban on U.S. booze.

...Joan Kautz, head of global sales and marketing for Californian winemaker Ironstone Vineyards, says she understands the strong message sent by taking U.S. alcohol off shelves in Canada.

"I don't like it, but I understand it," Kautz said.

The fight over alcohol has meant wines from the 2,500-hectare vineyard in Lodi, Calif., haven't been available in Canada for a year and a half.

Kautz says they're still selling some products to Alberta, where private-run liquor stores aren't restricting U.S. booze, but it's a fraction of the business Ironstone used to send north of the border.

For the past year and a half, Canada has basically dropped American booze imports to less than a third of what they'd been historically — forcing some smaller wineries into bankruptcy this past year -  and good luck finding any mention of it in all this wailing about the injustice Trump is now visiting on them.

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...Last year, government-run liquor stores in Canadian provinces began removing American-made alcohol products from their shelves in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs on Canadian products, including steel and aluminum.

The provincial ban resulted in a 70% decline in liquor exports to Canada from March through December of last year, compared to the same period the year before, according to a report from the Distilled Spirits Council of the U.S. 

The Canadian trade group for the spirits industry is coming unglued, simply because the volume from Canada to the US is exponentially larger, and Canadians, because of their 'confederation,' cannot begin to make up lost sales between provinces, since those are mostly banned already.

For all intents and purposes, the US is the sole export market for Canadian liquor.

...According to the group, last year Canada exported more than $948 million in spirits to the U.S., representing about 93% of Canada’s total spirits export value.

Maybe the Syrupeans should behave more like adults instead of Chardonnay wives, and life would be so much easier.

Trump calls Canada "one of the worst countries in the entire world" to deal with

On Tuesday's live stream, Sheila Gunn Reid and Lise Merle reacted to President Trump calling Canada "one of the worst countries in the entire world" to deal with on trade.

Trump made the remarks Monday while speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, one day before his ban on nearly $1 billion in Canadian dairy, motor vehicles and alcohol took effect. It's the latest escalation since Washington imposed 50 per cent tariffs on roughly $28 billion in Canadian goods last month and Prime Minister Mark Carney matched them dollar for dollar.

"They want to have a deal with us. They call us all the time. The problem is that they've treated the United States very unfairly," Trump said, accusing Ottawa of hitting American farmers with tariffs of 400 per cent and more.

"There's nothing they have that we need," he added. "And they feel entitled."

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The U.S. president isn't much into either entitlements or free-riders demanding things.

Trump tends to get fed up, and when he does, the hammer comes down.

...“Canada has taken advantage of us for so many years, the worst of any country,” he said.

“I love the Canadian people, but the leaders have taken advantage of our stupid leadership for many, many years. They felt emboldened.”

...The obstacle, he argued, is how Ottawa has treated American farmers and industry: “They’ve treated the United States very unfairly. They have been one of the worst countries in the entire world.”

He contrasted that with China: “We get along with China, we get along with the people, and we make good deals. But Canada has been really very difficult to deal with.” Trump highlighted dairy and farm tariffs: “They’ve charged our farmers 400% tariffs and more… They take advantage of us. They feel entitled.” He added that Canada does “95% of the business they do with the United States,” while U.S. dependence the other way is “a tiny fraction.”

Navarro piled on. “Those tariffs are as high as, like, 400% sometimes… Triple digits on the dairy tariffs.” He called Canadian negotiators “the most difficult and arrogant of the traders” from Trump’s first term. “The Canadian people are wonderful, but they cheat us on just about everything they can. Lumber, aluminum, steel, dairy, down the list.” He also accused Ottawa of “getting in bed with China, trying to play China against us.”

Trump listed other grievances: military help, icebreakers (“We have 11 of them right now under construction. And they want to know if they can use our icebreakers”), energy, and lumber. “They’re not a state. There’s nothing they have that we need… They have to treat our country with respect. They’ve been very, very bad to our farmers in particular.”

On how it ends, Trump predicted movement soon: “Over the next three or four weeks, they’re going to come to us and they’re going to say, we’re going to get rid of all the tariffs… They’re going to come in and they’re going to say, sir, we are sorry.” He added the troll: “Lake Ontario is now Lake America. And that’s been done, by the way.” Bottom line from Trump: “I think a deal will be made, but it’s got to be a fair deal.”

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IT'S GOT TO BE A FAIR DEAL

For his part, the twee Syrupean PM is off to Europe to schmooze with his new best friends.

Sure sounds like gangbusters, eh?

Although one intriguing development has been floated for Elbows Up Carney that should thrill him to no end, much as the rapturous reception his anti-Trump diatribe at Davos this past spring did.

This would be like winning the Canadian Club Clown Crown at this point.

Mark Carney's stand against Trump leads to Nobel Peace Prize and Time Person of the Year buzz

Mark Carney built a global profile in 2026 by standing up to U.S. President Donald Trump. If some prediction-market traders and prominent admirers are right, the Canadian prime minister could end the year with the Nobel Peace Prize and Time magazine’s Person of the Year.

Carney briefly became the favourite Monday for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Kalshi, a U.S.-based prediction market, when traders on the exchange put his chances at 14 per cent. His odds later fell, illustrating the highly speculative nature of the wagering.

There is no public evidence Carney is on the Nobel Committee’s secret shortlist for the prize that will be announced Oct. 9 in Oslo, Norway.

But the buzz about the Canadian leader possibly winning the esteemed peace prize reflects the message that has raised his profile: Middle powers should band together to defend sovereignty as great powers increasingly use economic and military leverage.

Whether that position resonates with the Nobel Committee is impossible to know. One thing is certain, though: the Nobel and Time’s annual award happen to be two honours Trump covets.

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Say...what's a Nobel Peace Prize worth in Syrupean coinage these days anyway? 'Bout a buck fitty?

It's gonna be worth a whole lot less by the time Carney gets through with them...if there's anything left.

 

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are once again respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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Ed Morrissey 10:00 PM | September 30, 2026
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