What's the EU Do Now That Trump's Triumphed in Poland?

In countries with a parliamentary form of government, those who have an office of president as part of that system can find that whoever fills that office can gum up the Prime Minister's government and their plans.

That is precisely what the European Union and the Polish government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk are holding their collective breaths about after the results of last night's second and final round of presidential elections were tallied. 

Needless to say, it wasn't their guy who won.

Nationalist opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Poland's presidential election, results showed on Monday, delivering a big blow to the centrist government's efforts to cement Warsaw's pro-European orientation.

In a victory for European conservatives inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump, Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote, election commission data showed. The outcome presages more political gridlock as he is likely to use his presidential veto to thwart Prime Minister Donald Tusk's liberal policy agenda.

The EU and PM Tusk's more Euro-centric Civic Coalition (KO) were hoping their candidate, the mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, would defeat the former boxer and historian, 'right-wing' Law and Justice (PiS) party candidate, Pawel Nawrocki. That would finally unencumber the 18-month-old Tusk government of the last nationalist tether holding it back. This incoming president would replace outgoing President Andrzej Duda, who had been a thorn in the side of both Tusk and the EU with vetoes and some decidedly controversial judicial appointments, which earned the country EU sanctions.

It almost looked as if they pulled it off last night, and Trzaskowski prematurely popped his victory cork after the first exit poll.

...Tusk's government has been seeking to reverse judicial reforms made by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) government that lost power 18 months ago but President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has blocked those efforts. Nawrocki is likely to continue that pattern as president.

The judicial reforms helped sour relations with Brussels under the PiS government. The European Union's top court ruled that a new procedure for appointing judges did not guarantee their impartiality, opening the way for rulings to be questioned, and Brussels sued Poland after its Constitutional Tribunal questioned the primacy of EU law.

Nawrocki's rival, Rafal Trzaskowski, Tusk's ruling Civic Coalition (KO) candidate, had declared victory immediately after the publication of an exit poll late on Sunday that showed the result would be very close.

The office of Polish president is definitely not a figurehead position, having some serious power in its own right. And Nawrocki was unambiguous where he stood on the direction that Tusk was taking the country, which was further into the arms of the European Union.

...It is also likely that Nawrocki will narrow the government's room to maneuver in terms of foreign policy.

According to the constitution, the Polish president is not only commander-in-chief of the armed forces, he also has a say in foreign policy.

Nawrocki's stance on core foreign policy issues clashes with those of the government.

During his election campaign, he spoke out against Ukraine joining NATO and in favor of attaching conditions to the country's EU accession. In terms of security, the president-elect favors relying on the US, is a euroskeptic and mistrusts Berlin. He also wants to continue efforts to get Germany to pay war reparations to Poland.

"Poland is facing the Hungarian scenario," said sociologist Robert Sobiech, who warned that with Nawrocki, Poland will distance itself from Europe, as Hungary has under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, and that PiS could — together with the ultra-right Confederation Liberty and Independence party — return to power in 2027.

It didn't help Tusk's image at home that there was such an obvious and concerted smear campaign against Nawrocki...

...Throughout the election campaign he was dogged by attempted smears. It was claimed he had acquired a municipal apartment from a senior citizen offering care but had allegedly failed to fully honour his side of the bargain. There were separate claims, which he denied, that he had connections to the underworld. Prime minister Donald Tusk in a televised interview on May 26 accused Nawrocki of pimping in a Gdansk hotel for which the PiS president-elect was a security guard. Nawrocki has denied the allegation and is in the process of suing liberal leaning German-Swiss owned portal Onet for publishing the claim.

...while Tusk himself was perceived as being treated with kid gloves by the EU in order to smooth the skids for their preferred candidate, particularly as far as policy discussions on the hot-button issue of immigration went. 

...Ziobro’s post is a reference to a report by French newspaper Le Monde describing how the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, supports Prime Minister Donald Tusk ahead of the presidential elections in Poland.

According to Le Monde, the head of the European Commission is avoiding controversial topics so as not to harm the KO candidate. As the French daily writes, there is an informal agreement between von der Leyen and Tusk, under which the EU commission president supports the government in Poland by turning a blind eye to the prime minister’s statements or even postponing the publication dates of reports that are offensive to Poland, including the one regarding the CO2 emission reduction target.

“Tusk is now allowed to make statements that would not be accepted from other leaders,” the newspaper notes, pointing out that this concerns issues such as the migration pact, the Green Deal or the Mercosur agreement, which hits the interests of Polish farmers.

This may tie into some of Tusk’s critical comments on immigration, including his claims that Poland will not have to accept migrants under the EU Migrant Pact, a claim that has been clearly refuted by experts. Notably, the EU itself, including von der Leyen, has not commented on Tusk’s claims about the EU Migration Pact so as not to harm his chances in securing the presidency for the left. All of these comments have been building up to this presidential election. Once the liberals win, Tusk will have broad power to implement the EU’s agenda, and in turn, can comfortably take a pro-migration course without the threat of vetoes from a conservative president.

Nawrocki has said he will tell the EU to suck a stone on a number of their favorite mandates.

...During the campaign, Nawrocki promised he would oppose Ukrainian membership of NATO and any presence of Polish troops in Ukraine. He is also an opponent of any further  EU integration as well as the EU’s Green Deal and Migration Pact.

Bond villainess Ursula Von der Leyen was all that was polite at the news, and the Germans, woof. They are unhappy.

...He has not shied away from tapping into Polish anti-Ukrainian sentiment over refugees, has criticised Kyiv and its EU and Nato accession plans, and his attendance at Nato summits could significantly complicate Europe’s united pro-Ukraine front.

Nawrocki will have somewhat less influence over other EU issues to which he is also opposed, such as deeper integration, joint borrowing and Europe’s green deal, but the overall effect of his election on Poland’s pro-EU ambitions will be chilling.

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, said on Monday the EU would continue its “very good cooperation” with Poland. But analysts note Polish conservatives cast Sunday’s vote as a refendum on Tusk’s whole pro-EU agenda.

The nationalist’s win is also a boost for Europe’s populist EU-critical parties, led by Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, and to Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister and the bloc’s disrupter-in-chief, whose illiberal rule-of-law playbook PiS follows.

The question is now, does Tusk challenge the election?

...The election result can still be challenged in the Supervisory Chamber of Poland’s Supreme Court, a body Tusk’s government claims is illegitimate as a result of European Court of Justice rulings against the last PiS government’s judicial reforms.  

Or does he work with what he has and try to save his and Poland's place at the EU head table, as they put it?

With Ukraine's attacks on Russia this weekend, there could also be a disturbance in the Force that may well upset everyone's plans.