Over the weekend some amazing things happened under the radar in Syria.
Turkish-backed Islamic rebels, who have been causing the Assad regime no end of heartburn for years now (since freedom protests in 2011, basically), decided to goose their game and went rolling through the countryside. Bashar al-Assad's forces - with the reported assistance of the Russians and Iranians - are doing what they can to hold on, but for some reason, this time, the rebels seem to have the wind at their back.
...The balance in the stalemate started changing last week, when the Islamist-led rebel alliance in the northwest launched its offensive. Over the weekend, HTS and allied factions took control of Aleppo city for the first time since the civil war started more than a decade ago, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitoring group's director Rami Abdel Rahman.
And really, to be perfectly honest, there are no 'liberating heros' in this army sweeping through the towns into the larger cities.
It's like a Turkish funded Taliban/Al-Qaeda hybrid coming in.
This is my view as well. Add in the ironically named Syrian Democratic Forces, which is really the Marxist terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party sprinkled in with some window dressing tribal forces.
— Bill Roggio (@billroggio) December 1, 2024
As Jon said, may they all lose. https://t.co/6LuXqdRUy3
They are brutal, just as misogynistic, and as anti-Israel as anyone else in the region.
It's also destabilizing other areas because those groups sense weakening on Assad's part.
With Assad’s regime still reeling from rebel victories in Aleppo, a new challenge to his regime has emerged: a growing protest movement among the Druze community in Suwayda.
— Center for Peace Communications (@PeaceComCenter) December 2, 2024
Watch: pic.twitter.com/ZbLTBq5Tdt
The US has, of course, called for 'de-escalation,' but who's listening to POTATUS and Winken Blinken at this juncture?
...The European Union also called on "all sides to de-escalate", while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "alarmed" by the violence and called for an immediate halt to the fighting.
Syria has been at war since Assad cracked down on democracy protests in 2011. The conflict has since drawn in foreign powers and jihadists, and left 500,000 people dead.
The conflict had been mostly dormant with Assad back in control of much of the country, until last week when the Islamist-led rebel alliance began its offensive.
The attack has seen swathes of Syria fall to rebel control, including second city Aleppo for the first time since the start of the civil war.
"We want to see all countries use their influence -- use their leverage -- to push for de-escalation, protection of civilians and ultimately, a political process forward," US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters.
If they're going to raise hell, they're going to get it done before Trump hits the White House, the limp US posture improves, and there's a chance their fortunes change.
As I said, the Islamists now claiming control of the country's second-largest city aren't known for their cosmopolitan and civilized behavior.
...The Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies took the city at the weekend, except for neighbourhoods controlled by Kurdish forces, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
They also seized Aleppo International Airport.
HTS, led by Al-Qaeda's former Syria branch, has faced accusations of human rights abuses including torturing detainees.
Christians, in particular, are once again threatened with virtual extinction.
There are reports that many have evacuated into Kurdish-held territory for protection.
Christians of Aleppo have fled to the Kurdish neighborhoods where the Kurds, even the elderly women, are taking up arms to defend Kurds and Christians.
— Hemdad Mehristani (@Mehristani) November 30, 2024
But how long can they resist Turkish-backed jihadists?
The world must support the Kurds, the only democratic forces in Syria. pic.twitter.com/JzdzXQumXH
The Turks have their own bones to pick with the Kurds, so it's not just Islamic fanatics running amok.
It's also exposing the tighter ties between Axis of Evil members in the area. The distress of the Assad regime may well give Israel a momentary breather, but the tiny country cannot continue to be the lone ranger in the middle of the rabid pack.
Syrian rebels make huge gains. What’s the upshot for Israel?
— Jonathan Schanzer (@JSchanzer) December 1, 2024
Hezbollah may now shift assets to Syria to defend Assad.
“This… would bolster the likelihood of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire holding.”
Seems optimistic. Lots of negative outcomes to consider. https://t.co/AWrDDBJr42
And it's hard to know how much actual support Russia can provide, no matter what they pledge. The Ukrainian war is still raging and bleeding them dry of blood and treasure.
Maybe the only thing they'd be able to do was give Assad somewhere to live if he decided the prudent thing to do would be to stay gone.
The biggest challenge to Bashar al-Assad’s regime seemingly came out of nowhere, and as the city of Aleppo fell to rebels in a matter of days, the Syrian president reportedly flew to Moscow https://t.co/gpFv1ajZx3 pic.twitter.com/WJREDUX8L6
— Bloomberg (@business) December 2, 2024
Most importantly of all, let's not forget - even though our own vice president did - that we've had American troops stationed in those deserts, watching over oil fields for decades.
What about them now?
Senator @TomCottonAR: "Kamala Harris's claims that there are no American troops in a war zone, I bet would come as a surprise to the thousands of American troops we still have in places like Iraq and Syria — that are repeatedly hit by mortars and drones." pic.twitter.com/9s0toolbMD
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 15, 2024
Reports have it that our troops are seing action already.
US forces pummel Iraqi pro-assad reinforcements as they cross into Syria while standing idle, as SDF allies of the US are driven out of northwest syria by Turkish backed mercenaries https://t.co/hA8BNyBs9H
— Pratposting (@prawst) December 1, 2024
Who gets them out when all seventeen - or two hundred - pissed-off factions decide to take each other on?
None of them like Americans. We sure as hell do not have the assets to get involved in a ground war in the Middle East. We can't even spank the Houthi shooties with authority, for God's sake.
This has the makings of a free-for-all and that could be very bad.
I mean, even Iraq is sending troops to help Assad, and the rebels are upfront about saying they only got as far as they did because everyone was watching Israel.
Hundreds of Iran-backed Iraqi fighters crossed into Syria on Monday to help the government fight rebels who seized Aleppo last week, but Lebanon's Hezbollah has no plans for now to join them, according to sources.Iran's constellation of allied regional militia groups, aided by Russian air power, has been integral to the success of pro-government forces in subduing rebels in Syria who rose up against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011.But that alliance faces a new test after last week's lightning advance by rebels in northwest Syria, with Russia focused on war in Ukraine and Hezbollah's leadership decimated by a war with Israel that ended in a ceasefire last week.The rebel storm of Aleppo is the biggest success of anti-Assad fighters for years. Government forces had held complete control of Aleppo since capturing what was then Syria's largest city in a siege in 2016, one of the major turning points of a war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people.The head of Syria's main opposition group abroad, Hadi al-Bahra, told Reuters the rebels were able to seize the city so quickly because Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups were distracted by their conflict with Israel.
They certainly have gotten attention now, and everyone seems to be watching Syria, so that rebel easy roll is over.
There are going to be a lot of frogs that pot, and not one of them is there purely to help out. Everyone has an eye to gaining some ground in some fashion.
I sure wish we had someone paying attention.
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