As if balloons and UFOs on this side of the planet weren’t enough, China’s been busy poking people’s peace in the Pacific as well, specifically in the Philippines.

With all the uber-nationalistic, anti-American rhetoric and actions that came out of the administration of former PI president Rodrigo Duterte, the Chinese made huge inroads unopposed all through the Pacific.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on Wednesday said Filipino forces can fight insurgents and Muslim extremists without American military help, in a defense of his recent decision to terminate a U.S. security pact.

Duterte also said in a speech that he would stick to a decision made early in his presidency, when he was enraged by then President Barack Obama’s criticism of his deadly anti-drug crackdown, that he will not travel to the United States.

The brash Philippine leader has often criticized U.S. security policies while praising China and Russia since taking office in mid-2016 for a six-year term.

…The Philippine government notified the U.S. two weeks ago that it intends to end the Visiting Forces Agreement, which allows American forces to train in large numbers in the Philippines, in the most serious threat under Duterte to the two nations’ 69-year treaty alliance.

The United States has been at a distinct disadvantage in attempts to counterbalance CCP expansion plans. The inherent weakness, when push came to shove against Beijing, in the interim manifested as the Chinese pumped millions of acres of sand onto coral outcroppings – claimed as “Chinese territorial islands” – building airstrips and ship repair facilities upon the artificially constructed acreage seemingly at will. With Subic Bay gone and the U.S. Navy, having only Guam and Japan for full-service venues to operate out of, the Pacific was suddenly a very large obstacle to being the ocean’s police force.

In June of last year, Duterte left office and the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., became the Philippine president (interestingly enough, with Duterte’s daughter Sara as his VP). Sticky wicket, Filippino politics. In any event, I’m not sure what our representative at his inauguration was supposed to signal. That seems like a lazy diplomatic slap to me, especially considering who the Chinese sent and the high stakes in the region.

…Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris’s husband, Doug Emhoff, were among foreign dignitaries attending.

What? Nobody from even the State Department was available? They sent DOUG?

Thankfully the insult seems to have been overlooked in the graveness of the situation, and Marcos has been far more open to the Western side of the argument. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his Philippine counterpart announced a four-base mutual use pact last month, expanding on the original 2014 VFA (Visiting Forces Agreement) agreement. It still does not include access to either the former Clark AFB or Subic Bay Naval Base.

With Manila emerging as a critical element in the Pentagon’s plans to counter China, the United States and the Philippines have reached a deal that will see Washington substantially increase its military footprint in the Southeast Asian country.

Announced Thursday by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Philippine counterpart, Carlito Galvez Jr., in Manila, the pact will grant U.S. forces access to four more military sites in the country — in addition to a previously agreed five — providing Washington with a strategic footing on the southeastern edge of the disputed South China Sea.

The Pentagon did not identify the new sites, saying only that they will be in “strategic areas” of the country. Media reports, however, put most of the new facilities on the main island of Luzon, the closest Philippine landmass to Taiwan, where U.S. forces already have access to two military facilities.

Another site would reportedly be located on the western island of Palawan, facing the contested Spratly Islands, as the longtime allies seek to deter Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and against Taiwan.

For a normally mealy-mouthed Biden administration, Austin used some pretty harsh language to describe the Chinese expansion efforts.

…“We remain committed to strengthening our mutual capacities to resist armed attack,” Austin said at a news briefing, adding that this is especially important “as the People’s Republic of China continues to advance its illegitimate claims in the South China Sea.”

Marcos has also been busy in concert with the Japanese, negotiating a VFA with that country.

…The Philippines and China have overlapping claims in parts of the South China Sea, areas believed to be rich in minerals, gas and oil deposits, and other marine resources.

Marcos said a tripartite agreement with the United States and Japan was discussed during his five-day visit to Tokyo from Wednesday and “it is something that we certainly are going to be studying upon my return to the Philippines.”

Such an agreement should be part of the process of strengthening trilateral ties in “confusing” and “dangerous” situations, Marcos said, citing uncertainties related to the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“It is part of an ongoing process that we are undertaking to make more solid partnerships and alliances that we are beginning to put together in our area,” he said.

Marcos added that signing a VFA with Japan, a U.S. ally, so that its Self-Defense Forces can take part in joint military exercises in the Philippines “certainly deserves a good deal of thought.” The SDF have participated in joint drills for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in the Philippines as their activities overseas are strictly limited under Japan’s war-renouncing Constitution.

How times can force change: The Philippines considering inviting the Japanese military back onto the islands to train and for mutual self-defense.

Keeping an eye on the tiger sure makes for strange bedfellows.

The Chinese are watching and pushing and prodding, as always. On Feb 6, a Philippine coast guard tender full of supplies was on its way to something called “Two Thomas Shoals.” There’s a tiny military contingent based there. Technically, “on the shoals” makes you think of concrete huts on a deserted island beach, coconut palms, a lizard, or something right?

Nyet.

They’re living in a rusty scow the Filippinos grounded on the coral. You can’t make this kind of stuff up.

They’re frickin’ Gilligans without the island.

…The incident took place at the Second Thomas Shoal, 105 nautical miles (195 km) off the Philippine province of Palawan. The shoal is home to a small Philippine military contingent on board a rusty ship.

The 100-metre long (330-ft) World War Two ship was intentionally grounded on the shoal, known in the Philippines as Ayungin, in 1999 to reinforce Manila’s sovereignty claims in the Spratly archipelago.

The Chinese are determined to make them absolutely miserable.

China should restrain its forces to prevent them committing any “provocative act”, the Philippine military said on Monday, after Manila accused China’s coast guard of using a laser to try to disrupt a resupply mission to troops in the South China Sea.

The Philippine coast guard (PCG) said its vessel was assisting a navy mission to deliver food and supplies to troops on an atoll in the disputed waterway on Feb. 6 when a Chinese coast guard ship directed a “military-grade laser” at the ship, temporarily blinding its crew on the bridge.

…”The deliberate blocking of the Philippine government ships to deliver food and supplies to our military personnel … is a blatant disregard for, and a clear violation of, Philippine sovereign rights,” the PCG said in a statement.

China’s foreign ministry said in response that its coast guard conducted actions according to the law.

I anticipate the Chinese will be ratcheting up the harassment, as they are wont to do when things aren’t going their way. They were not happy about the Marcos rapprochement with the Japanese, but there is no way they could have missed the implications of the expanded agreement with the U.S. If you read the highlighted section about Austin’s agreement and then double-check in the section above where the unfortunate rusty bucket is located, you will see they are one and the same. The U.S. now has troop land access to those disputed Spratly Islands.

Nerves have to be pinging in Beijing and things are going to get very, very touchy.