November jobs report - 211,000 jobs added, unemployment rate unchanged at 5.0%

Earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the November jobs report. The top lines of 211,000 jobs added in November, with 197,000 in the private sector and an unchanged unemployment were a bit better than expected by the experts, though less than the 217,000 private-sector jobs add ADP reported on Wednesday. This is all but certain to trigger an increase in the Federal Reserve interest rates later this month, which will trigger an increase in interest rates in other loans.

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From the BLS report, with all numbers seasonally adjusted except as noted:

Household Survey Data

In November, the unemployment rate held at 5.0 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.9 million, was essentially unchanged. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons are down by 0.8 percentage point and 1.1 million, respectively.

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.7 percent), adult women (4.6 percent), teenagers (15.7 percent), whites (4.3 percent), blacks (9.4 percent), Asians (3.9 percent), and Hispanics (6.4 percent) showed little or no change in November.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 2.1 million in November and has shown little movement since June. In November, these individuals accounted for 25.7 percent of the unemployed.

The civilian labor force participation rate, at 62.5 percent, changed little in November. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 59.3 percent and has shown little movement since October 2014.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 319,000 to 6.1 million in November, following declines in September and October. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. Over the past 12 months, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons is down by 765,000.

In November, 1.7 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 392,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 594,000 discouraged workers in November, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.

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Rounded to the nearest hundredth of a percentage point, both the participation rate and employment-population ratio did increase by 0.05 points. The fact that the October LFPR was 62.43% meant that the increase to 62.48% meant it could be rounded up. However, other than the past 2 months, the LFPR hasn’t been this low since October 1977.

It was not mentioned in the report, but the employment situation among the “prime” workforce, those between the ages of 25 and 54, improved rather significantly, at least in comparison to the recent past. The seasonally-adjusted LFPR of 80.84% is a full tenth of a point higher than last month and the highest since May, though it is lower than every month between December 1984 and October 2013. The employment-population ratio of 77.40%, an increase of 0.19 points from last month, is the highest of the Obama Presidency, though it is still lower than every month between July 1986 and January 2009.

The increase in those involunatrily employed part-time, that is, those who work less than 35 hours per week at however many jobs they have, did drive the U-6 rate up 0.1 percentage point to 9.9%.

A deeper dive into the establishment data isn’t quite as encouraging as the top line, and the positive revisions to the prior two months, would indicate. Again from the BLS report, with all numbers seasonally adjusted:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 211,000 in November, about in line with the average monthly gain of 237,000 over the prior 12 months. In November, job growth occurred in construction, professional and technical services, and health care. Employment in mining and information declined over the month….

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in November. Both the manufacturing workweek and factory overtime were unchanged in November, at 40.7 hours and 3.2 hours, respectively. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was also unchanged at 33.7 hours….

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +137,000 to +145,000, and the change from October was revised from +271,000 to +298,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 35,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 218,000 per month.

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Once again, the biggest gain was in restaurant and bar jobs, with an increase of 31,500. Residential specialty trade contractors saw an increase of 25,800 jobs, hospitals saw an increase in 13,400 jobs, non-department-store general stores saw an increase of 11,100 jobs, and accounting and bookkeeping services saw an increase of 11,100 jobs. Somewhat suprisingly, the number of jobs in temporary help services declined by 12,300. Quite less surprisingly, every portion of the mining sector saw job losses, summing to 11,500 jobs lost. Motion picture and sound recording studios accounted for the bulk of the job loss in the information sector, with a drop of 13,400 jobs.

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Ed Morrissey 10:00 PM | November 20, 2024
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