Earlier this week I asked a question – why is Nikki Haley refusing to commit to debating Ron DeSantis before the Iowa caucuses in January? The debate is scheduled to air just days before the Iowa caucuses.

Push came to shove, apparently, and Haley has now committed to do the debate with DeSantis. Team DeSantis has been blasting her about doing the debate. On Friday, eight days after the invitation went out, she agreed to participate. DeSantis was the first candidate to agree to participate in the January 10 CNN debate to be held at Drake University in Des Moines.

There is a 10% polling requirement for this debate, not sponsored by the RNC. The only candidates expected to qualify are Trump, DeSantis, and Haley. Trump has not participated in a primary debate to date and that is unlikely to change before the Iowa caucuses on January 15, 2024.

When the CNN debate was announced on December 7, Haley and her team refused to say if she was interested in debating DeSantis. It presents a prime opportunity to go one-on-one with DeSantis. DeSantis and Haley are the two strongest opponents of Trump in the Republican primary. In day-to-day operations, it looks like she is running against DeSantis, not Trump, because Haley is spending big bucks in ads against DeSantis, not her old boss, Trump. Trump is most bothered about DeSantis challenging him in the primary because he has spent tens of millions of dollars against DeSantis, not the others. If Trump is so confident about his odds to win Iowa, why spend all that treasure against DeSantis?

Haley’s team has been saying she has been getting lots of opportunities to speak to audiences since the RNC paused its sanctioned debates. That may be but so what? American voters expect debates between the candidates. I think Haley felt the pressure. She knows DeSantis had a solid win in the fourth (last) RNC debate. DeSantis also had a solid win over California Governor Newsom. DeSantis has found his groove and is very good on the debate stage. He is a policy nerd and that enables him to articulate his positions and explain why they are good. Most importantly, he has the receipts. He has the victories under his belt as governor to give him cred on most issues. He is also the only veteran running in the primary and that gives him more insight into foreign policy decisions.

Haley is a good candidate. Any of the Republican candidates would be a vast improvement over Joe Biden. But I think only DeSantis has a chance to beat Trump. As far out ahead as Trump is supposed to be, it is easy to get discouraged if you want someone other than Trump in 2024. But, we have to wait and let the caucuses and primaries begin when people will begin to vote. If Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire, it is hard to see a path forward for the others. Trump will have the momentum.

Trump is telling voters in Iowa that he wants a big victory – a big margin of victory would be “so, so powerful.”

During a campaign event here on Wednesday, Trump said Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird had encouraged him to emphasize the importance of the margin of victory to supporters who may not feel the need to turn out to the caucuses given the former president’s comfortable lead in the polls.

“That margin of victory is so, so powerful,” Trump said while referring to a conversation he had with Bird, who has endorsed the former president. “Brenna was telling me before, she said, ‘Sir, you’ve got to say something about it, because you are leading by a lot. And sometimes when you’re leading by a lot, everyone says, ‘Oh, why should I go and vote?’”

Bird took the stage before Trump on Wednesday night, noting that the record margin of victory in a contested Iowa Republican caucus was 12 points. “We need to beat that. We need Donald Trump to set the record for the biggest win in Iowa history,” Bird said.

It sounds like the Iowa attorney general is on the Trump campaign’s payroll, doesn’t it?

Anyway, the point is that Trump knows he has to maintain his big lead and then have a stellar showing on January 15 to begin to discourage his challengers. Trump wants everyone to drop out now so all financial contributions go to him. Polls are looking good for Trump against Biden right now but there is plenty of time for that to change. Independent voters open to supporting Trump in 2024 say, according to cross tabs in major polls, that if he is convicted of anything before the election, they will not vote for him. Trump can’t win without independent voters. Neither can Biden. They have left Biden in droves but may turn back to him, depending on what happens in Trump’s legal battles between now and then. That is something Trump campaign officials don’t want Trump’s base to know. They want to pretend that 30 percent of black voters will turn out for Trump, for example, and I can all but promise you that Trump will probably receive the standard 13% of the black vote that Republicans receive. Republicans have to be reality-focused. The 2024 race is going to be a close one, even with Dementia Joe at the top of the ticket. Republicans have to choose carefully.

I look forward to seeing DeSantis and Haley go one-on-one against each other.