Two of the most vulnerable Democrat incumbents in the Senate are running campaign ads very similar in message. They admit that things are bad in Biden’s America without actually saying those words. Mark Kelly in Arizona and Raphael Warnock in Georgia are walking a tightrope as they try to show empathy for everyday working Americans struggling in Biden’s economy while trying to assure them that Democrats have solutions for their problems.

Good luck with that. Biden’s poll numbers are in the dumpster and he’s bringing other Democrats down with him. The four most vulnerable Democrats in the Senate are Kelly, Warnock, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire. Their four states are battleground states in the battle for control of the Senate in the November midterm elections.

Today, Mark Kelly released his first tv ad.

This is Raphael Warnock’s tv ad:

The messages from both are clear from the top. Things are tough but they feel your pain. Kelly’s approach is to use his own family’s story to talk about the struggles of those living paycheck to paycheck. Warnock reminds voters that he’s a pastor while he acknowledges that overnight families can see their lives upended. And, he acknowledges that we no longer even know what normal is, much less how to get back to it. Neither utter the name of Joe Biden.

Warnock’s opponent, Trump-endorsed Republican frontrunner Herschel Walker sent a message to donors that Warnock paid $725,000 from his $23M campaign war chest to finance the ad. It will air statewide. Walker said that expenditure shows Warnock is concerned about his reelection chances. But $725,000 out of a $23M war chest seems like small potatoes for a statewide tv ad, right? However, yes, Walker is right – Warnock sees the polls. As of today, Real Clear Politics has Walker up a point over Warnock and calls the race a toss-up.

Mark Kelly stands a pretty good chance of being reelected. He’s consistently up over any of his GOP challengers. He’s also not seen as reliably progressive as Warnock is to voters. There is never any doubt with where Warnock stands and its with the progressive wing. Kelly keeps his head down, rarely gets noticed, but he also is a reliable Democrat vote in the Senate. Kelly’s ad will run in the Phoenix and Tucson markets.

Both tv ads are a smart way to go for the two candidates. Unfortunately for them, though, while they both try to forget Biden in their ads, voters cannot. The public has totally soured on Biden, tracing directly back to the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Biden will not recover before the November midterm elections, barring any unforeseen events. There is a red wave coming because of Biden’s incompetence in office and that wave will likely turn into a red tsunami.

The best the vulnerable Democrats have come up with in the Senate is the Gas Prices Relief Act. They hope to convince Americans that it will bring down the price of gas for them at the pump but it will not. Politicians have tried it in the past and it is a temporary relief at best. It’s like a sugar high – it feels good briefly then the crash comes. A few cents here and there in temporary gas tax relief is quickly replaced with higher gas prices for motorists. There is no avoiding that.

Biden won all four battleground states but they were small wins. Since then, Independents and suburban voters have abandoned Biden. It isn’t looking like they have the stomach to trust Democrats in the midterm elections. Nor should they. Biden’s big transformation of America fever dream isn’t playing well anywhere.