As you probably remember, Zohran Mamdani ran for mayor on an affordability platform. One of his biggest (and potentially most expensive) promises was that he would make buses fast and free. Estimates on the cost vary:
The campaign says this will cost less than $800 million annually. Last year, there were nearly 410 million bus trips. At a cost of $2.90 per fare, and factoring in 2024’s fare evasion rate of 48 percent among bus riders, it would cost more than $600 million to make buses free.
The cost could fluctuate depending on how many people take the bus. In 2019, a year when ridership was higher before the pandemic changed commuting habits, making buses free would have meant covering $900 million in bus fares.
That was the best case. Other estimates (which I wrote about here) suggested this could cost a billion per year. That's not exactly loose change, even in New York City. But as with all of his spending plans, Mamdani was limited in what he could deliver because paying for all of the stuff he promised comes down to state taxes over which he has no control. New taxes required the state legislature's involvement plus the signature of the governor.
In fact, way back in November, Gov. Hochul made it clear that free buses were not on her agenda. She reiterated that as recently as a month ago.
It’s a no on free buses in New York City… at least for now, Gov. Kathy Hochul told PIX on Politics host Dan Mannarino on Thursday.
Hochul said she has no immediate plans to include free MTA buses in the state budget, one of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s hallmark promises.
“Not at this time,” she said. “We’ve also said nothing is a permanent no.”
So this promise was already on the ropes. And now Mamdani may be getting a permanent no from the federal government according to a new report by Politico.
The Trump administration wants to stop large cities that receive federal funds from providing free bus transit, a move that would hit programs across the country — and could be a setback to New York City, in particular.
The proposal applies to transportation agencies located in areas with populations over 200,000 and a fleet of more than 100 buses. That could affect transit systems in the Kansas City metro area; Richmond, Virginia; and Albuquerque, New Mexico, all of which currently offer free bus rides...
Under the draft legislation floated by DOT, such cities that receive money from the Federal Transit Administration would be required to charge a fare. Otherwise, that federal funding would be withheld.
“This policy would help ensure the largest federally supported systems are safer and more adequately funded by users,” the document says.
New York state officials didn't seem bothered by this announcement. In fact, the state's top transit official called Mamdani's promises of free buses in the city a "campaign bumper sticker." Ouch.
This is definitely good news for Gov. Hochul. If the new ban on free buses gets through congress, she won't be to blame for blocking Mamdani's promise. As for Mamdani, this would put an end to pursuing this but does the involvement of the Trump administration help him or hurt him?
On the one hand, he won't be able to deliver on it and that could hurt him come reelection time. On the other hand, being able to blame the failure on Trump and the Republicans might be helpful to him. He couldn't afford to badmouth the governor because he needs her help on other things. But he could blame this on Trump and his voters would probably love that.
The other question is whether the DOT proposal was aimed specifically at Mamdani or if it really is about not giving away federal dollars to transportation systems that aren't at least partially self-sufficient. There's some reason to think it's the latter. Almost none of these systems are completely self-sufficient and the pandemic really damaged finances for public transportation in all big cities. The hope was that things would recover by now but it hasn't happened in most places.
During the pandemic and shutdowns, transit ridership declined rapidly across nearly every state in the United States, leading to significantly reduced fare revenue and placing tremendous financial pressure on transit agencies. In response, Congress approved the largest package of federal transit assistance programs in American history, providing approximately $25 billion through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, $14 billion via the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSAA), and adding $30.5 billion in the American Rescue Plan for public transit...
Although ridership has increased since its low point in 2020–2021, most places have not returned to pre-pandemic ridership levels despite unprecedented federal aid and higher state and local spending.
Some transit systems are close to recovery; a handful have surpassed 2019 ridership, but many remain well below their earlier benchmarks.
It looks to me like DOT is trying to avoid becoming a crutch for big city transit systems that are on the brink of failure. Demanding they charge a fare is a way to ensure cities are making some effort to cover their own costs rather than falling into the arms of unwilling taxpayers.
