Has Iran had enough yet? Pakistan and Turkey have, along with Oman and Egypt. For the IRGC, however, their two nuclear neighbors to the east and west may matter most in how much longer they plan to hold out.
Before we get to that, however, the new Supreme Leader has spoken ... or rather, written. Nepo Babytollah Mojtaba Khamenei still has not appeared in public, on video, or even by voice to lead his people after the death of his father Ali. The closest he's come to making an appearance was as a crude cardboard cutout at an "allegiance" ceremony this week. Instead, Khamenei fils literally mailed in his first wartime declaration to IRGC-controlled television, which had a presenter read it aloud:
Iran’s new leader Mojtaba Khamenei vows revenge and unity:
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 12, 2026
In a statement via Fars News, Khamenei called for strong public turnout on Quds Day, defended using Strait of Hormuz leverage, and thanked Axis of Resistance fighters, including Hezbollah, Iran-backed Iraqi militias,… pic.twitter.com/sPNfImrn7Y
... and Yemen’s Houthis for supporting Iran and Gaza.
He described his new role as challenging, following the legacies of Khomeini and Ali Khamenei, and stressed the need for national unity and public backing.
Hiding the Supreme Leader behind the skirts of a female television presenter is certainly ... a choice. I'm certain that the regime never saw it this way, but others may come away with the same impression. That certainly won't improve the assessment of Iran's leadership by the neighboring states, especially given Iran's support for similarly gutless terror networks that routinely target and hide behind civilians.
If the optics are bad, Khamenei's demands are worse; they are untethered from reality. He refers to an "effective defense" when Iran has no defense at all, while insisting that the Iranians will instead continue to use oil traffic and attacks on neighbors to deter the US and Israel:
"The will of the masses is to continue the effective and regrettable defense," Khamenei's statement read.
"Also, the lever of blocking the Strait of Hormuz must definitely continue to be used. Studies have been conducted on opening other fronts where the enemy has little experience and will be extremely vulnerable in them, and their activation will be carried out if the war situation continues and based on the observance of interests." ...
In the statement, Khamenei reaffirmed that Iran will continue to attack the US bases located within the Gulf, adding that these countries had been "explicitly warned" that such attacks would occur.
"From now on, we will inevitably continue to do so, although we still believe in the need for friendship between ourselves and our neighbors. These countries must make their duty clear to the invaders of our beloved homeland and the murderers of our people. I recommend that they close those bases as soon as possible, because they must have realized by now that the claim of establishing security and peace by America was nothing more than a lie," the statement read.
The OSINT account above also reports that Khamenei wants reparations, a demand made by Masoud Pezeshkian yesterday as well:
Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei:
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 12, 2026
“We will, in any case, obtain compensation from the enemy.
If they refuse, we will take from their assets to the extent we deem appropriate; and if that is not possible, we will destroy an equivalent amount of their property.”
Well, wish in one hand ...
Again, this statement likely came from hardline IRGC military leadership. There has been literally no evidence that Nepo Babytollah is alive at all, other than claims from IRGC-connected official media. Not even a photo has emerged since the war began that shows Mojtaba alive, let alone contemporaneous audio or video that would suggest his positive respiratory status. The IRGC likely has exactly what we have seen this week – the best cardboard cutout possible that allows them to wrap the mantle of theocratic authority around the shoulders of just another grubby military junta.
That will make things more difficult for the four countries attempting to get Iran to talk their way out of the hole they keep digging. In fact, it might make it impossible. How do Turkey and Pakistan negotiate with a dead man, while the IRGC sidelines the quasi-civilian government that may or may not want to negotiate?
The IRGC's problem is that they don't have any leverage left. Thanks to their dog-in-the-manger strategy, Iran finds itself short on friends as the two-week mark in the war approaches. They have lost most of their navy, all of their air defenses, and the Israelis and Americans have yet to run out of bombs or patience. The Iranian missile attacks on everyone in the region (except nuclear-armed Pakistan) have set teeth on edge throughout the region and sapped any remaining sympathy for the mullahs in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, Pakistan and Turkey want Iran to get serious about settling the war on terms other than Iranian supremacy. They propose to keep the regime, but only a regime that reads the room:
Turkish FM Hakan Fidan on Iran:
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 12, 2026
“The war must end as soon as possible.
There should be no question about Iran’s territorial integrity, and pursuing regime change should not be the focus.
The region must return to normal quickly.” pic.twitter.com/vL4Op02QSn
Senior officials from Oman, Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey are holding behind-the-scenes talks with senior Iranian officials in an attempt to initiate dialogue with the Trump administration toward a deal, or even a ceasefire, a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post.
Officials from the four countries are trying to persuade the Iranians to begin discussions with the Americans.
However, according to the source, Iran has so far refused to enter talks on an agreement, maintaining a hardline position and presenting initial demands as part of any potential deal between Tehran and Washington.
The hardliners in charge don't want a deal – at least, not yet. They want to try to burn down the region and force the West into retreat. The only way to get them to deal is to shock them into it, and that may mean taking Kharg Island and cutting off their access to hard currency. If they want to shut down the Strait of Hormuz for everyone else, there's nothing to hold us back from taking over their own oil distribution center and ending their own exports.
As for Nepo Babytollah, he's a non-entity. Even if he is alive, he's a tool of the IRGC and its junta. The Iranian people see right through the implications of hereditary succession, not to mention the implications of a radical cleric proclaiming his strength while hiding behind a hijab.
Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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