As Ed mentioned here last week, the Trump administration is apparently looking for someone in the Cuban government willing to make a deal that would put an end to the current regime.
The Trump administration has assessed that Cuba’s economy is close to collapse and that the government has never been this fragile after losing a vital benefactor in Maduro, these people said. Officials don’t have a concrete plan to end the Communist government that has held power on the Caribbean island for almost seven decades, but they see Maduro’s capture and subsequent concessions from his allies left behind as a blueprint and a warning for Cuba, senior U.S. officials said...
“Cuba’s rulers are incompetent Marxists who have destroyed their country, and they have had a major setback with the Maduro regime that they are responsible for propping up,” a White House official said, reiterating that Cuba should “make a deal before it’s too late.”
The shakiness of the current regime since Nikolas Maduro was ousted in Venezuela is not even arguable. But now even Mexico is having second thoughts about supply Cuba with oil.
The Mexican government is reviewing whether to keep sending oil to Cuba amid growing fears within President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration that Mexico could face reprisals from the United States over the policy, which is a vital lifeline for the Communist-run Caribbean island, according to three sources familiar with the discussions...
Publicly, Sheinbaum has said Mexico will continue oil shipments to Cuba, saying they are based on longterm contracts and considered international aid. But the senior Mexican government sources said the policy is under internal review as anxiety grows within Sheinbaum's cabinet that the shipments could antagonize Trump...
The government review of Cuban oil shipments has not been previously reported, and the sources requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. It remains unclear what ultimate decision the Mexican government might take, with sources saying a complete halt, a reduction, and a continuation in full are all still on the table.
In the long run, none of those options should matter. Cuba was barely hanging on before it lose about 40% of its oil supply (from Venezuela). So even if Mexico keeps sending them oil at the current levels, blackouts and other issues are inevitable. But obviously, cutting the supply from Mexico could make the inevitable happen much sooner, as in a few weeks instead of months. The US estimates that Cuba does not have any significant reserves to fall back on.
If Mexico doesn't cut off oil to Cuba, the US has another option: a complete blockade of all oil shipments.
The Trump administration is weighing new tactics to drive regime change in Cuba, including imposing a total blockade on oil imports to the Caribbean country, three people familiar with the plan said Thursday.
That escalation has been sought by some critics of the Cuban government in the administration and backed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to two of the three people, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive discussions. No decision has been made on whether to approve that move, but it could be among the suite of possible actions presented to President Donald Trump to force the end of Cuba’s communist government, these people added...
But there are ongoing debates within the administration about whether it is even necessary to go that far, according to all three people. The loss of Venezuelan oil shipments — and the resale of some of those cargoes that Havana used to obtain foreign currency — has already throttled Cuba’s laggard economy. A total blockade of oil imports into Cuba could then spark a humanitarian crisis, a possibility that has led some in the administration to push back against it.
There is a real danger that, no matter what we do, this is going to end in the kind of complete societal collapse that requires billions of dollars of aid to prevent mass starvation. Will no oil there is no electricity to store food and in many places no water. So depending on how long the regime hangs on, this could get very ugly for the people of Cuba. The people don't matter much to the communists. If it did they'd have abandoned communism long ago. Indeed, last week the regime declared a state of war. In other words, they expect everyone to fight to the death to protect the glorious revolution.
Hopefully, none of that will happen. We just need one sensible person on the inside who can tell which way the wind is blowing and we could bypass a lot of suffering for everyone. Hopefully we'll see it happen sooner rather than later. The end of communist Cuba would be a very good thing and could eventually lead to a free and prosperous Cuba which normalizes trade with the US.
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