If Columbia University thought it could agree to Trump administration demands and then quietly tell its own insiders that it had no intention of following through on any of them, they are probably going to be mistaken. The end of this may not be some handshake deal in which Columbia promises to be better and the Trump administration restores its funding. Instead, this could be headed for a consent decree in which the school's compliance with specific goals is closely monitored for years to come.

A consent decree, which can last for years, would give a federal judge responsibility for ensuring Columbia changes its practices along lines laid out by the federal government. If such a decree is in place, Columbia would have to comply with it. If a judge determines the school is out of compliance, it could be held in contempt of court—punishable by penalties including fines...

A consent decree would be a major escalation of how the federal government normally resolves education-related civil-rights issues. Typically after federal lawyers investigate and find evidence that civil rights were violated, schools enter voluntary agreements to change their practices. The federal government has little ability to enforce such agreements. The Biden administration entered into such voluntary agreements over antisemitism concerns with Brown University and Rutgers.

Again, I think this is what Columbia and 60 other schools facing investigations by the Education Department want. They want a voluntary agreement which they can subsequently cheat, fail to enforce or generally just ignore.

Sure, we'll do away with DEI! We pinky swear.

But all they'll actually do is rename a few offices and job titles and carry on as before.

Sure, we'll put an end to antisemitism on campus. We'll put a mask policy in place and demand IDs from those who violate school policy.

But all they'll actually do is make empty threats and generally let the activists carry on as if nothing had changed. This is what former interim president Katrina Armstrong appeared to be doing. And that made an impression on the Trump administration.

The task force is aiming at the consent decree, people familiar with the matter said, because it doesn’t think Columbia is a good-faith actor willing to make the significant changes on campuses necessary to curb what it thinks are civil-rights infractions against Jewish students. Government lawyers grilled former interim president Katrina Armstrong in a three-hour deposition recently about her actions to address the issue. A task force member openly voiced his frustration with her answers.

Nothing appears to have been settled yet. In fact it's not even clear if this possibility has been raised with Columbia directly. Also, to actually move forward with this, someone would need to file a lawsuit to place the issue in the hands of the courts.

A decree could allow President Trump to continue to exert power over one of New York City’s flagship universities, and could serve as a model for other schools seeking to negotiate with the White House...

A spokeswoman for Columbia would not comment on whether the possibility of a consent decree had been raised. She said in a statement that “the university remains in active dialogue with the federal government to restore its critical research funding.”...

But if a consent decree is under negotiation, either the administration or the school would probably have to file a lawsuit in federal court, which would serve as a vehicle for turning any deal into an agreement that could be overseen by a judge

There's no lawsuit yet which suggests this isn't on the verge of happening. But for all we know government lawyers have already drawn up the paperwork and have shown it to the school. If nothing else, this is one more stick the administration can use to enforce compliance on a more voluntary basis.