Hunter Biden was convicted in his gun trial and made a plea deal at the last moment to avoid his tax trial. Today, the NY Times has an article today looking closely at how much prison time he is likely to serve. The answer lies somewhere between not much and none.

He is looking at a maximum of 17 years in federal prison for the tax charges, and $1.35 million in fines. He faced nine counts for falsifying records and failing to file returns dating to a period when he was hooked on crack, alcohol and easy cash. That is on top of the 25-year maximum he faces after being convicted in Delaware for lying on a federal gun application.

He will serve, at most, a small fraction of that time — and his legal team hopes to spare him even that.

The article goes on to point out that sentencing in federal cases is based upon a numerical score which ranges from 1 to 43. The higher the number the more serious the crime. In Biden's tax case, his score is about 17.

Mr. Biden’s score is about 17 for each charge, based on the guidelines, which typically means six to 12 years in prison cumulatively.

But Mr. Biden is more likely to be sentenced to about two to three years, after judges account for other factors and the practice of calculating sentences concurrently for defendants fitting his profile, legal experts say.

So maybe 24 months or a bit more. As for the gun case, his numerical sentencing score in that one is somewhere around a 12 which has him facing a sentence of about a year. However, that could be significantly lower or maybe a bit higher depending on what the judge believes about why he bought the gun.

...his sentence could end up closer to zero to six months if he can prove he bought “all ammunition and firearms solely for lawful sporting purposes or collection.”...

But prosecutors could try to prove he also bought the gun for self-protection at a time when he was interacting with dangerous criminals, which could result in a stiffer sentence.

It really strikes me as far-fetched to believe that a drug addict who was regularly meeting with dealers and who kept his gun in his truck had purchased it for "sporting purposes." But if he can get away with that, maybe this won't add much to his total time behind bars.

So on the low end he could be facing as little as two years and on the high end it probably won't be more than four years. Either judge could decide to disregard the established sentencing guidelines but to do so they'd have to offer a written explanation. That's considered unlikely given the scrutiny on this case, especially in the gun case because the judge in charge of that one has relatively little experience. So the best bet here is probably about 3 years total but a bit less wouldn't surprise me.

And of course there's the outstanding question of what Joe Biden will do in his last days in office. Say, Hunter does get 3 years total. Will the president let that ride? Joe Biden has said he won't pardon Hunter but when asked the White House refused to rule out the possibility that he might commute the sentence.

The president declared flatly last week that he would not pardon his son if convicted, but did not address a commutation, which would leave the guilty verdict intact but wipe out some or all of the punishment. Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, told reporters on Wednesday that she could not say whether the president might consider such an action.

The fact that they declined to close this door probably isn't an accident. Hunter's two sentencing hearings are both currently scheduled for December, meaning we should know his fate before his father leaves office. We'll have a better idea what he's expecting then because the DOJ generally will not accept a commutation request from someone who is appealing their sentence. So if Hunter appeals, that may be a sign he's on his own. If he doesn't, that's a sign he's probably looking for help from on high.