This Ukrainian reporter who I follow really summed it up.

Well, now Russia is truly fucked.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 15, 2022

As Ed pointed out this morning, Russia launched a large volley of missiles at Ukraine. This was pretty obviously meant as retaliation after Russia’s humiliating withdrawal from Kherson. But Russia has been targeting civilian infrastructure in Ukraine for weeks. What literally crossed a line today is that two of those missiles reportedly struck a border town in Poland. Putin just attacked a NATO country.

It was Russia’s biggest barrage yet, and some of the missiles crossed into Poland, where two people were killed, according to a U.S. official. It marked the first time in the war that Russian weapons have come down on a NATO country.

Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information from a senior U.S. intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the situation. But Mueller said top leaders were holding an emergency meeting due to a “crisis situation.”

Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.

Where is Przewodów? It’s a long way from Kyiv but only about 2-3 miles from the border with western Ukraine.

Here’s an image of the crater left behind.

#BREAKING DEVELOPMENT: 2 rockets suspected of being fired by Russia landed in the Polish border town of Przewodów killing 2 people.

The premier of Poland is convening an urgent meeting with his national security team. – local mediahttps://t.co/00Kr8INMlx pic.twitter.com/VnYA7m6z0o

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) November 15, 2022

More photos:

More unconfirmed photos from the scene in Przewodów, Poland. pic.twitter.com/NdcvGVdT5D

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) November 15, 2022

And here’s video from the scene.

📍First video from the reported scene in Przewodów, Poland, where 2 Russian missiles reportedly impacted killing 2 people. pic.twitter.com/mxgkoqr3jq

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) November 15, 2022

The Pentagon is saying this hasn’t been corroborated yet. But notice up above that the AP story was based on “a senior U.S. intelligence official.”

Pentagon press secretary says it can't currently corroborate media reports that Russian missiles impacted in Poland killing 2. Says it is looking into it. pic.twitter.com/YZAk1GZypz

— Moshe Schwartz (@YWNReporter) November 15, 2022

The NSC spokesperson is saying the same thing.

We've seen these reports out of Poland and are working with the Polish government to gather more information. We cannot confirm the reports or any of the details at this time. We will determine what happened and what the appropriate next steps would be.

— Adrienne Watson (@NSC_Spox) November 15, 2022

Meanwhile the Russian defense ministry is denying outright that it was responsible:

“Polish media reports and official statements about the alleged fall of ‘Russian’ missiles near the Polish settlement of Przewodow are a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation. The Russian military has conducted no strikes at targets close to the Ukrainian-Polish state border,” the ministry said.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, wreckage seen in the Polish media’s footage from the scene has no relation to Russian weapons.

Julia Davis notes that the head of RT doesn’t seem to be expressing much doubt that this happened.

Head of RT Margarita Simonyan: "Now Poland has its own Belgorod region. What did you expect?" pic.twitter.com/JUyaFOKRdR

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) November 15, 2022

Belgorod is a city in Russia located north of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Ukrainian artillery has reportedly hit the area, which is a staging area for the invasion, many times.

It’s worth noting that the top story on the TASS site right now is this one:

Russia is not refusing to negotiate with Ukraine, it is the Kiev regime who is doing so, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters on Tuesday following his attendance at the G20 summit.

“We have repeatedly confirmed through our president that we do not refuse to negotiate. If anyone is refusing to negotiate, it is Ukraine. The longer it [the Kiev regime] continues to refuse, the harder it will be to reach an agreement,” he clarified.

Some pure speculation on my part here but Russia just suffered another big loss in Kherson. Now they’re heading into winter and won’t be likely to gain any ground for months. Putin might be looking at this and saying the best thing he can do now is freeze the Ukrainian gains by committing to some kind of negotiations which he can shrug off again when he has better weather and more troops in place. One way to emphasize the need for negotiations would be an “accident” like this which worries everyone about the possibility of Putin expanding this into a war on NATO. It seems to me his propagandists have been trying to accomplish the same thing by talking about a possible nuclear strike and that’s no longer getting him the jolt he wants. So now this little accident happens to get everyone worried.

Again, that’s speculation. At this point we don’t even know for certain what happened. But whatever it was it seems the Russian markets aren’t responding well despite the official denials.

Russian market collapsed on the news of two missiles landing on the territory of Poland, a NATO member. pic.twitter.com/xzOwAdmkuc

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) November 15, 2022

Biden is now speaking with the President of Poland.

https://t.co/JYRazuiHH9 pic.twitter.com/FuldU1EtFG

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) November 15, 2022

Update: There’s a readout from that call between Biden and the president of Poland.

In a readout of the call, the White House said Biden “offered full U.S support for and assistance with Poland’s investigation” and “reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to NATO.” The two leaders also agreed to remain in “close touch to determine appropriate next steps as the investigation proceeds,” the White House said.

But despite talk about an investigation, it sounds like Poland doesn’t have much doubt this was a Russian strike. Some of their neighbors sound confident as well.

Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded an explanation for the deadly blast near the southeastern town of Hrubieszów.

“A moment ago it was decided to increase the readiness of some military units in Poland and other uniformed services,” government spokesman Piotr Müller told reporters…

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, whose country borders Poland, tweeted that “every inch of NATO territory must be defended!”

“If Poland confirms that the missiles also hit its territory, this will be a further escalation by Russia,” Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala posted on Twitter. We stand firmly behind our EU and NATO ally.”

Fellow NATO member Estonia, which for decades was part of the Soviet Union and has in recent years warned of Russian expansionism, called the news “most concerning.”

NATO members a bit father from the explosion are saying less.

A French defense source told CNN that France was being “extremely cautious” and that officials would not comment until they were able to “analyze all the available information.”

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Tuesday spoke with Duda reiterating the UK’s “solidarity with Poland and expressed condolences for the victims.”

According to CNN, Poland is considering invoking Article 4 of the NATO charter.

Article 4, which Poland is considering, is a consultation method that allows members to bring an issue, usually a security issue, affecting them for discussion at the North Atlantic Council, the alliance’s decision making body.

“The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened,” the article states.

The best-known aspect of the alliance is Article 5 of the treaty, which, if invoked, means “an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.” It has only ever been invoked once, in response to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States.

However, the alliance can take collective defense measures without invoking Article 5 – and has done this in the light of the Russian attack on Ukraine.

So that’s where things stand now.