Post: Democrats fear midterm drubbing (but Biden is preparing to spin the loss)

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

These stories keep coming fast and thick this week. Here’s one published this evening by the Washington Post full of Democrats expressing their nervous concern about the midterms. A democratic strategist quoted in this story even uses the M-word: Malaise. Welcome back, Carter!

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As Republicans have focused on inflation and crime to go on offense in Democratic territory over the past month — competing in traditionally blue districts in California, Oregon, New York, Illinois and elsewhere — there’s a growing sense among Democrats that there’s little they can do at this point to combat the combined forces of history and economics.

“There’s a general malaise that’s hanging over the country,” said Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist.

As the nerves overtake them, the White House is preparing to spin a loss as a win.

One House Democratic strategist said that if Democrats hold 200 to 205 seats, they will consider it a good night. If the party ends up with 190 seats or less — a loss of 30 seats that would require several districts Biden carried by double-digits to flip — that would reflect a big red wave, said the strategist, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Biden allies are preparing to spin even a defeat as a win for the president, since President Barack Obama lost 63 seats in 2010 and President Donald Trump lost 40 in 2018, and Biden is not expected lose as many. But because Biden began his presidency with a much smaller majority than his predecessors, even modest losses could leave Democrats with fewer seats than the 193 they had in 2011.

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Top Democrats including both Bidens, Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton are visiting various states in an attempt to rescue endangered Democrats. But one of the places Joe Biden won’t be visiting is Arizona where Sen. Mark Kelly has decided a visit from POTUS would do more harm than good.

…while [Kelly] he touted legislation his party had passed at an earlier campaign stop, he steered clear of mentioning President Biden — who hasn’t stepped foot in Arizona since taking office amid a backlash here to his stewardship of the border and the economy.

The appearance encapsulated Kelly’s attempts build his own brand in a purple state that has rewarded candidates with an independent streak willing to stray from the party line. But his efforts have run into strengthening head winds in the final stage of the midterms. Inflation is high here; Democrats are on the defensive over federal border policy. And Republicans have coalesced behind GOP challenger Blake Masters as Election Day nears, polling shows, setting up an increasingly tough test of Kelly’s ability to separate himself from his party and their national woes….

Now, Democrats are bracing for a turbulent end to a race in which Kelly long appeared to have the advantage, strategists in the party said. One Democratic strategist who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the race candidly, said there is a lot more nervousness in the party than there was two months ago…

“In Arizona, there was always the expectation that the race would tighten,” said Jon Seaton, a longtime GOP strategist in the state who said Republicans believe Masters can “ride a heavy election day turnout to victory.”

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Jill Biden will be going to Arizona to boost Kelly’s reelection which polls show it’s going to be a tight race. Joe Biden and former President Obama will be stopping in Pennsylvania this weekend hoping to prop up Fetterman’s campaign. Meanwhile, Democrats see House seats in south Texas slipping away.

…the party has grown increasingly concerned that Republicans have a path to win all three House seats in South Texas, a longtime Democratic stronghold.

Party leaders in Texas and Washington have long expected that Republicans could gain a foothold in the region by flipping the state’s 15th Congressional District, where Republican candidate Monica De La Cruz has run an aggressive and well-funded campaign. But, now, Democrats are alarmed by GOP momentum they’re seeing in the neighboring 34th and 28th districts, where Biden won by nearly 16 points and more than seven points, respectively…

Republicans are “competing and taking advantage of a frustration, an anxiety in the community. They’ve shown up with real candidates and real money to compete. We’ve never seen that before,” said Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha, a former senior adviser to the presidential campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), pointing to the GOP’s big spending in the region to build on Trump’s 2020 gains among Latinos.

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There are just too many places they are losing in deep blue districts for this election to be anything but bad news for Democrats. On one hand, that’s what normally happens during the midterms to the party in power. On the other hand, all the shouting about the end of democracy hasn’t saved them.

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John Stossel 8:30 AM | October 12, 2024
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