Quoting Julius Caesar in this instance fits the occasion. Actually crossing this Rubicon may not be what Benjamin Netanyahu wants, however.
Word came out yesterday that Netanyahu has all but decided to fully occupy the Gaza Strip if Hamas refuses to surrender and return the hostages. The conservative ministers in his Cabinet have pressed for a full commitment to war and the destruction of Hamas for months, if not for the entire post-October 7 period. However, the IDF itself reportedly opposes this plan, and most of Israel's allies -- fair-weather and otherwise -- will not care much for it either:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told ministers this week that he will seek cabinet backing for a plan to fully occupy the Gaza Strip, despite objections from within the Israel Defense Forces.
According to reports in Hebrew media, several ministers said Netanyahu used the term “occupation of the Strip” in private conversations describing his vision for the expansion of military operations in Gaza — a notable shift in tone as the government prepares to discuss the future of the Gaza campaign.
The Ynet news site quoted a senior official close to the premier as saying, “The die is cast — we are going for a full occupation of the Gaza Strip.”
“There will be operations even in areas where hostages are being held. If the chief of staff doesn’t agree, he should resign,” they added, referring to IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, who reportedly opposes the proposed occupation of Gaza.
Needless to say, starting off a new war plan while losing your top military adviser is not the most propitious launch possible. The IDF has some serious doubts about how this plan can be executed, given the nature of urban warfare in Gaza cities after two decades of Hamas fortifications and the sheer numbers it will take to subdue a population of nearly two million people. And that's just at the beginning; as Israel knows only too well, occupation requires a new and constant level of militarization of the population and economy.
That's not the only downside either, as the war has shown already. The longer this drags out, the more risk Israel takes with its international partnerships, including the Abraham Accords. So far the Sunni Arab nations in that coalition have made less of a fuss over the war than certain feckless European 'allies' have, but a formal re-occupation of Gaza may change that calculus in the Middle East. As unjustified as it may be, Israel has taken significant political damage for fighting the war Hamas started again, and a full-out occupation will escalate the collateral damage even further than we have already seen.
Even the Poles have gone wobbly:
On Sunday, in a Polish-language post on X that sparked strong criticism from the Foreign Ministry, Tusk stated: “Poland was, is, and will be on Israel’s side in its confrontation with Islamic terrorism, but never on the side of politicians whose actions lead to hunger and the death of mothers and children. This must be obvious to nations that together went through the hell of World War II.”
In response, the Foreign Ministry yesterday accused the Polish premier of “linking his timely condemnation of Hamas with an unacceptable reference to politicians, accompanied by a reminder of the horrible days of World War II,” and encouraged the premier to “remember the lesson of ‘Never Again,'” referencing the slogan associated with remembrance of the Holocaust, the systemic genocide of six million Jews which was largely carried out in Nazi-occupied Poland during World War II.
“Never Again…applies to our era’s new Nazis and their collaborators, Hamas. Israel acts within international law. When Poland is threatened, you don’t take risks either,” wrote the ministry.
Even if the IDF enthusiastically implements this new strategic plan, Netanyahu faces at least several months of high-intensity urban combat to achieve this goal. How much diplomatic damage will Israel take in that time frame? How many losses will Netanyahu be able to sustain in that combat before the Knesset forces a new election?
For that matter, just how patient would Donald Trump be with that strategy? He's already showing public skepticism about Israel's aid deliveries.
This looks like a negotiating tactic more than a serious plan for the next phase of the war. Hamas has refused to negotiate in good faith, and now they're not talking at all to anyone except Turkey. Netanyahu has to force Hamas back to the table, and a threat to fully reoccupy Gaza may be one of his last plays. That might not move Hamas either, since Netanyahu has made it clear that he wants Hamas out of Gaza, and at least on that score, the Arab League has his back. Netanyahu and Trump now agree that any deal must include all of the hostages at the same time and set comprehensive terms for a resolution of the conflict, which might interest Hamas but not if it means giving up power.
There is a third option here which may already be in play. Netanyahu can annex a significant part of Gaza and turn it into a militarized zone, pushing Gazans back toward the cities. That would keep Israel from the occupation business while forcing Hamas to deal with a new refugee crisis, and allowing Israel to secure its own southern agricultural region against any more attacks. The IDF could then stage raids based on intel to take out Hamas command nodes and destroy the infrastructure within the contained region. That would put pressure on Hamas for a deal without putting the IDF in the dangerous position of fighting in an urban jungle that Hamas spent two decades rigging for maximum damage.
Netanyahu may not have many options left in fighting this war, but he still has a few. And on that thought, one has to wonder: why is the Billionaire Boys Club of Doha still above room temperature? Why choose occupation before choosing decapitation when strategizing about the end of Hamas?
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