CNN had a poll last week which found that, looking at the numbers nationwide, Democrats still had a slight advantage over the GOP. However, the same poll found that when it came to competitive congressional districts, the situation was reversed.

Among likely voters nationwide, the race is a tight split, with 50% backing the Democratic candidate and 47% behind the Republican. But in competitive congressional districts, Democratic support among likely voters dips and preferences tilt toward the Republicans: 48% of likely voters in that group prefer the Republican candidate, 43% the Democrat.

Jump forward to today and a new Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies/SurveyMonkey poll of over 100,000 likely voters found something very similar.

Nationally, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate if the election for House were being held today and 49% said they would vote for the Republican candidate.

But more concerning for Democrats — with just 18 days to go before the election — is that the Republican advantage grows to 6 points, 53% to 47%, among all likely voters who live in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Six points is the average but in some battleground states the GOP advantage is in double digits.

Democrats trail Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 12 points in Ohio; 10 points in Florida; 6 points in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina; 4 points in Wisconsin; 4 points in Nevada; and the parties are statistically tied in Pennsylvania, according to the survey.

Here’s the chart showing the results for the battleground states. The chart specifies elections for the House but the NBC report is assuming these numbers would transfer to Senate votes as well.

It’s a shame about Pennsylvania (where neither party holds an advantage) but a 6-point advantage in Georgia is very bad news for Stacey Abrams and maybe even for Sen. Warnock. Also the 6-point advantage in Arizona is probably good news for Kari Lake who other recent polls have shown is surging. That same poll showed Blake Masters down by just one point against Mark Kelly.

One thing that is likely driving this is the priorities of the two parties. Democrats have been focused heavily on abortion for the past couple months. Republicans continue to focus on inflation and crime. The new poll (as you can see above) did find abortion was the top issue for Democrats, followed by climate change. However, when you look at the results among all adults, both issues are come in well behind inflation (44%) and crime (23%).

In short, Democrats chose to run on the wrong issues and they are probably going to pay for it in a couple more weeks.