When I wrote about Emmanuel Macron's ill-advised suggestion that the West might have to put "boots on the ground" in Ukraine, I suggested that it might not be the best idea to threaten Vladimir Putin that way under the current circumstances. Almost on cue, Putin came out today and issued an unsubtle reminder that he still has the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world and they are more than capable of hitting Western nations "on their territory." He even invoked the phrase, "the destruction of civilization." While this is likely just rhetoric at this point, it's yet another reminder that the world is on edge at the moment, and any mishandling of the situation in Ukraine could have repercussions that would spread far beyond Kyiv. (NY Post)

Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened the West with his country’s nuke arsenal ‘that can hit targets on their territory’ if they continue supporting Ukraine.

During his annual address to parliament and other high-ranking officials on Thursday, Putin, 71, repeatedly accused the West of being focused on weakening the Eastern European country while issuing the ominous warning.

“(Western nations) must realize that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory,” Putin said. “All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don’t they get that?!”

Putin, who is all but set to be reelected to another six-year term during the upcoming March 15-17 presidential election, boasted about Russia’s vast arsenal of modern nuclear weapons, the largest in the world.

At least part of this flareup, no doubt involves the fact that Vladimir Putin is currently in the midst of an election to ensure another term in office for him. If we were talking about a more "normal" country with the potential for competitive elections (we're not), this race would probably be a referendum on the invasion of Ukraine and the toll it's taken on the Russian people for the past two years. Sadly, the only viable candidate with any significant following and the gumption to challenge Putin was Alexei Navalny, and he is unavailable for debates for the foreseeable future. 

That does not, however, mean that the West can afford to simply ignore Putin's rants entirely. He went on to invoke Hitler and Napoleon as two examples of what happens to countries that attempt to invade Russia. Of course, nobody is talking about physically invading Russian territory, at least not yet. But Zelensky has been firing missiles into the Russian interior for a while now, doing some moderate damage in places. Since his country was invaded, that should be his right, of course, but the White House has attempted to handcuff such efforts to prevent the war from further expanding.

We're dealing with a madman here, but he's a madman who reportedly has more than 5,000 nuclear warheads ready to fly. Is he really crazy enough to unleash them on Europe, the United States, or even just Ukraine? I've been assuming from the beginning that such talk is all bluster. There are plenty of Western nukes pointed at Moscow. China has no interest in getting into a nuclear exchange because it would be bad for business, so Putin shouldn't expect anyone to jump in on his side with the possible exception of North Korea, and they only have a relative handful. 

But I'm not so sure anymore. If Putin were steadily gaining territory and it looked like Kyiv might fall in a reasonable period of time he could probably get away with prolonging this for quite a while. But the battle lines have largely stalled and the Russian people must already be growing irate seeing the endless flow of body bags coming back to their cities and villages. If he were to start seeing serious unrest around the country, his hold on power could become tenuous and some of the leaders inside the Kremlin might decide to take matters into their own hands. Putin may well be growing nervous. And that could push him toward seriously considering the nuclear option.

This is all the more reason that we should be seeking a negotiated peace with Russia. If Ukraine has to give up some of its eastern territory to make that happen, so be it. That would allow Putin to "declare victory and go home." It would also allow the internal debate in the United States over additional Ukrainian funding to be largely put to bed. The alternative could be very ugly for the entire world.