On the day that Hamas smashed through into Israeli territory and began executing a reign of terror, most of us were initially too shocked to bother wondering what was going on. At first glance, I found myself thinking that Hamas is always launching missiles and trying to kill Israelis, so this was sort of par for the course, only on a much more massive scale. But as the days passed and Israel began to respond in a predictable but logical fashion, other questions began to arise. To put it bluntly, what were the leaders of Hamas thinking? Surely they must have known that poking that large of a stick into the hornet’s nest was going to bring about devastating consequences. How could it not? So what is their endgame and that of Iran and the rest of the Arab world? The Times of India published an editorial on this subject last week offering a few possibilities, but it doesn’t seem as if even the most seasoned Middle East analysts can fully grasp what’s going on. All they seem to agree on is that this situation has the potential to be catastrophic for all parties involved.
The recent escalation marks uncharted territory for Hamas…
“It is unclear what Hamas’ endgame is beyond either fighting to the death or liberating Palestine,” Hugh Lovatt, a Mideast expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told AP. The latest attack marks a “complete strategic rupture,” he said.
Israel continued its relentless assault on Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip for the fifth consecutive day following the militants’ audacious attack, with the death toll soaring into the thousands. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed the complete destruction of Hamas, declaring, “Every Hamas member is a dead man,” while drawing parallels with the Islamic State group and asserting, “We will crush them and destroy them as the world has destroyed Daesh.”
I would still maintain that this wasn’t a mistake or some sort of “blunder” on the part of Hamas. This was a calculated risk with an intended outcome favorable to the ultimate goals of Hamas. Also, they wouldn’t have been able to pull something like this off without the material and financial support of Iran, so they likely received a green light from the Mullahs before moving forward. A few terrorists isolated in the Gaza strip might occasionally be guilty of shortsightedness, but Iran is certainly looking at the long game.
The lowest-percentage possibility is that the leaders of Hamas believed that they would be able to fully take down and overthrow the government of Israel, defeat its military, and literally drive them into the sea. Yes, that is certainly the dream of most of them, but they couldn’t have believed that they would be able to pull it off on their own. The two sides watch each other carefully and Hamas was clearly aware of the pounding that they would take if they tried.
Another scenario might be that Hamas knew precisely the type of overwhelming response that would be forthcoming from Israel and in fact they were counting on it. Why? While this may sound crazy, it’s conceivable that they believe that if they can goad Israel into a truly brutal-looking assault on the entire Gaza Strip, adding up to a virtual massacre of the Palestinians there, it would finally be a bridge too far and America and Israel’s other allies might turn their backs on the Jewish state. Well, if that was the plan, it’s backfiring badly thus far, though concerns remain about how long western resolve will be sustainable.
Then there is an even more disturbing possibility. What if Hamas knew that a brutal reprisal was on the way, but they also knew (or thought they knew) that help was going to arrive? That brings us back to the assumed collaboration with Iran. Iran also must have known that Hamas couldn’t pull off the complete destruction of the Israeli state even with all of the money and arms they were able to supply. The effort would eventually fail and Israel would flatten a fair part of the Gaza strip. So that would have been an incredibly foolish and callous waste of their fighters’ lives.
But if Iran and other Arab nations professed their outrage at Israel loudly enough and then declared that they could no longer idly sit by, they might jump into the fight. And after the first Arab nation joins in, several others would likely be soon to follow. Enough of them could eventually overwhelm the IDF and achieve their goals, even though the cost in human lives would be staggering.
Was that the plan all along? In the first days after the invasion, even most of the Arab world seemed to be holding their tongues, not wanting to publicly endorse the type of slaughter that we observed. But then, over the past week, that began to change. Iran is already warning Israel through the UN that they will face a war “on multiple fronts” unless they stop the bombardments and refrain from launching a ground attack. Earlier this year, well before the Hamas invasion, Jordan was threatening Israel with “catastrophic consequences” if they ventured outside of their borders. Syria has made threats in the past week as well. It doesn’t require an excessive amount of paranoia to point out that all of this sounds almost… scripted. I just find it impossible to totally discount the idea that this may have been the plan all along.
Even if we make it past the current crisis without a huge escalation, we’re still left with the question of what the long-term endgame is for both Israel and the greater Middle East. We should admit that there will never be a “lasting peace” between Israel and its Arab neighbors because the majority of the Arabs – or at least their leadership at a minimum – have no desire for a lasting peace. They resent the existence of Israel and want the country gone. So this may be the status quo for generations to come at least.
