I came away from the last GOP primary debate thinking that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley had turned in a pretty solid performance, particularly during her interactions with Vivek Ramaswamy. But at the same time, I was doubtful that the debate would do much to shake up the polls. I had second thoughts about that last night, however, when I saw a headline at National Review proclaiming that Haley had “surged” in the latest round of post-debate polling and had overtaken Ron DeSantis for second place in the contest. It’s an impressive accomplishment in a race such as this, but that headline comes with a couple of caveats. First of all, it’s not a national poll. It only covers New Hampshire. And while coming in second behind Donald Trump certainly earns her some bragging rights, she remains far behind the former president. Haley has climbed to 19% in the Granite State, but Trump is still cruising along at nearly fifty.

Nikki Haley has definitively surpassed Ron DeSantis in the race for second place in the Republican New Hampshire primary, according to a new poll conducted after the second GOP debate.

The former South Carolina governor has surged ahead of DeSantis, capturing 19 percent support among GOP primary voters in the Granite State compared to DeSantis’s 10 percent, according to a Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA TODAY poll released Wednesday.

However, former president Trump is still dominating the field, racking up 49 percent support in the poll. Of the 500 likely New Hampshire Republican presidential primary voters polled, 48.4 percent believe that Trump’s nomination is now inevitable.

Suffolk University’s polls have been pretty reliable in the past, so this one probably isn’t an outlier. (FiveThirtyEight gives them a grade of A-.) So at least in New Hampshire, it appears that Haley has really made a positive impact on the “somebody besides Trump” crowd. But you’ll notice that some of the pollsters including Suffolk are now including a question as to whether or not Donald Trump winning the nomination is already “inevitable.” Even in New Hampshire, nearly half said that it is.

Haley has been spending plenty of time in New Hampshire, which is a requirement for anyone seeking the nomination who hasn’t already served as president. And that investment seems to be paying off to some extent. But will that be enough to make an actual difference? It’s difficult to see how. In Iowa, as of last week, she was still trailing DeSantis 21 to 8, while Trump remains above 50. Even in her home state of South Carolina she only leads DeSantis by five, with Trump sitting at 51. The national numbers haven’t really moved measurably since the debates. Trump is still above 50, sometimes breaking 60, with DeSantis and Haley trailing in the teens.

At this point, the rest of the field is still playing for second place unless some significant external event takes place that suddenly removes Trump from play or at least implodes his massive lead. It’s clear that none of the messages coming from the rest of the pack are doing the job. Short of being hit by a bus, what could happen to impose such a change? If Haley and DeSantis are waiting for images of Trump being dragged into court to do the trick, it might be a long wait. Just a month ago, Donald Trump was publicly joking that he just needs “one more indictment” to wrap up the race once and for all. He actually seems to be enjoying the current trial and he’s been fundraising off of it already.

Assuming nothing changes, playing for second place seems less and less like there will be a big payoff. It’s hard to imagine Trump taking any of the people running against him as his VP pick. That spot will probably go to another Republican governor, or at least that’s my guess. Some of the people from the debate stage might wind up with cabinet positions, of course. And for the younger ones that might turn out to be a good deal. But Haley has been coming after Trump hard lately, and I’m not sure Trump will view all of this as water under the bridge if he returns to the White House.