On Friday, we discussed the African peace envoy mission to Ukraine and Russia where the leaders of seven nations sought to bring an end to the fighting. The meeting with Zelensky went well enough because Ukraine obviously has the greatest incentive to see the hostilities cease. The subsequent meeting with Vladimir Putin by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and the rest of the envoys was also reportedly friendly in nature, but it produced essentially nothing in terms of solid results or a workable path to peace. The African delegation raised understandable complaints about the negative impact the war is having on their continent, but according to a Kremlin spokesman, the African proposal was lacking in details and does not address “the main elements of our position.” But the meeting may still have been useful because Russia appeared to reveal what those “main elements” of its position are. (AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday met with a group of leaders of African countries who traveled to Russia on a self-styled “peace mission” the day after they went to Ukraine, but the meeting ended with no visible progress.

The seven African leaders — the presidents of Comoros, Senegal, South Africa and Zambia, as well as Egypt’s prime minister and top envoys from the Republic of Congo and Uganda — visited Ukraine on Friday to try to help end the nearly 16-month-old war.

The African leaders then traveled to St. Petersburg on Saturday to meet with Putin who was attending Russia’s showpiece international economic forum.

There is no arguing with the main complaints being raised by the African delegation. The war in Ukraine is impacting the continent’s ability to obtain the grain and fertilizer that is needed, particularly when Africa is facing both drought and rampant energy shortages. So ending the war would clearly work in their favor. But the proposal they brought to Moscow was described as being “thin.” The plan supposedly consists of ten elements, but Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the proposal “was not formulated on paper.”

He also described the African proposal as being “very difficult to implement.” The major shortfall, at least as the Russians see it, is that there is no plan to address the crisis ” that was created by the West.” In case anyone was wondering what that means, Lavrov went on to be more specific. He claims that Russia was “forced” to take military action because of Ukraine’s “desire to join NATO and by the country’s support from the United States and Western Europe.”

This pretty much confirms what so many analysts have been saying since the beginning of the war. Russia was angered by previous expansions of NATO to the east and if Ukraine were to join, Russia would be fully encircled by NATO nations on its western flank. Of course, it also makes Putin’s reasoning all the more nonsensical. By launching the war, he only increased Western sympathy for Ukraine, making its NATO membership all the more likely.

But the Kremlin’s response to this visit also seems to have unintentionally opened the door to a peace plan. Any proposal for ending the conflict would have to include a promise from both Ukraine and the alliance’s leadership that NATO membership for Ukraine is off the table. There would be other details to be worked out of course, including the question of Russia’s holdings in the Crimean region. But it appears that the conversation won’t even begin if Ukraine is still being seen as a viable NATO applicant.

That message may have sunk in for the Biden administration this weekend. After initially saying that a pathway for Ukrainian NATO membership was definitely on the table, the White House released a statement yesterday saying that NATO membership for Ukraine is “not automatic”

President Joe Biden said Saturday that the U.S. does not support a fast-tracked process for Ukraine to join NATO at the conclusion of the war.

Ukraine would need to meet certain criteria for NATO membership, Biden said, raising concerns about corruption in the country.

That statement may have been intended to prompt a ceasefire, but it doesn’t really move the ball down the field. First of all, he’s talking about NATO membership “at the conclusion of the war.” In other words, ending the fighting would need to precede any consideration of Ukraine’s application to join. And preventing Ukraine from joining is one of Mad Vlad’s primary driving motives.

It’s also rather hilarious to hear Joe Biden expressing concerns about “corruption in the country” when you consider Joe and Hunter Biden’s antics with Burisma. But that’s a question for another day. The point is, Russia is making it clear that they are fighting against the further eastward expansion of the NATO alliance. So that has to be taken into consideration if there is going to be any serious movement toward ending the conflict.