Is your head spinning yet? Barely 24 hours after China offered a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, CNN is reporting that they are still in negotiations to send missiles and ammunition to Moscow for use in the war. Russia is also requesting more drones. According to the U.S. intelligence reports, China still hasn’t reached a final decision on lethal aid, so perhaps it won’t happen. But the report also suggests that the negotiations have reached the point where the “price and scope of the equipment” are being discussed, so that sounds as if there has been some serious movement in that direction.

The US has intelligence that the Chinese government is considering providing Russia with drones and ammunition for use in the war in Ukraine, three sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

It does not appear that Beijing has made a final decision yet, the sources said, but negotiations between Russia and China about the price and scope of the equipment are ongoing.

Since invading Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly requested drones and ammunition from China, the sources familiar with the intelligence said, and Chinese leadership has been actively debating over the last several months whether or not to send the lethal aid, the sources added.

Iran has already been selling so-called “suicide drones” to Russia, along with missiles and other ammunition. But if China gets into the game we could be looking at a dramatic shift in the balance of power. One German source reported this week that Xian Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology in China was prepared to manufacture 100 prototype ZT-180 drones capable of carrying a 35-50kg warhead for Moscow. That would be some cutting-edge technology capable of delivering a lethal blast across much of Ukraine.

Of course, Ukraine is using plenty of drones as well. As early as last summer they were reportedly getting drones from both Turkey and Israel. The Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone is considerably cheaper than some built in America and western Europe. The TB2 can carry a significant payload and the drone can remain airborne for up to 24 hours and fly at more than 130 miles per hour.

China’s final decision in this matter will say a lot about the current state of play between the world’s superpowers. Keep in mind that just this week Joe Biden gave a speech in which he said lethal aid from China to Russia should be off the table and the United States “would respond” if that happens. Of course, he also told reporters that he doesn’t believe China will do it, despite his own Secretary of State warning that China was exploring the idea.

If China moves forward with this idea and begins shipping advanced drones and rockets to Moscow, it will be a clear signal that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party are no longer afraid of the United States and believe they can act with impunity without fear of whatever unspecified “response” Joe Biden has in mind. It will also further reinforce the perception that China has formally joined Russia, Iran, and others in a new axis of evil that will challenge America’s hegemony around the globe. It may also increase the odds that China will try a direct assault on Taiwan.

If you had “world war 3” on your 2023 bingo card, don’t throw it away just yet. Victory for Ukraine is far from assured and this mess could still spill beyond Zelensky’s borders on any given day.