Tomorrow, President Joe Biden will meet in person for the first time as President with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The two have had multiple phone and video calls since Biden took office, but the pandemic wound up canceling any in-person summits. And even after the plague eased, relations between our two countries have “soured,” to put it mildly. Right now, the tensions between the U.S. and China are about as high as we’ve seen in a generation or more. So what, if anything, should we expect to come out of this summit? Both sides have things that they want, so it’s just possible that some areas of compromise could be found, assuming that Biden can stay awake for the entire meeting and doesn’t wander off the script and say something to enrage his Chinese counterpart. (Associated Press)

There won’t be concessions from the U.S. side. No real deliverables, which is government-speak for specific achievements. Don’t expect a cheery joint statement, either.

During President Joe Biden’s highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday, the leaders will be circling each other to game out how to manage a relationship that the U.S. has determined poses the biggest economic and military threat.

At the same time, U.S. officials have repeatedly stressed that they see the two countries’ interactions as one of competition — and that they want to avoid conflict.

As you can see, even the Associated Press isn’t being terribly optimistic about this meeting. We’re being told not to expect any sort of cheerful joint statement of agreement or concrete proposals to improve the tense conditions that exist between us. But as noted above, Xi does have some specific things he would like to see happen and so does the United States. Few of the agenda items may be on the table, however.

Xi wants to see Biden back down on the rhetoric regarding Taiwan and have Biden agree that China has the right to reabsorb the island under communist control. There is zero chance of Biden saying that, though he might quietly agree to tone down his statements a bit if Xi is in the mood to deal. Xi also wants Biden to lift the sanctions imposed under Donald Trump and expand China’s access to the most advanced computer chip technology. I’m concerned that Biden might actually fall for that since it would involve undoing something that Trump did. (That remains his favorite hobby.)

Biden wants to see Xi Jinping back down on his military expansions and talk of a coming war. He would also like Xi to “clarify” his position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, potentially asking him to condemn Russia’s actions. Don’t expect to see that happen. Xi has been very careful in presenting a largely neutral pose when it comes to Ukraine and maintaining his relationship with Putin. A third, very important topic, would be getting Xi to crack down on the export of drug components used to make fentanyl to Mexico and South America, decreasing the chances of the Mexican cartels continuing to flood the United States with those poisons. It would be shocking if Xi Jinping sincerely embraced any of those requests.

The Hill describes the underlying goal of the summit as an opportunity for Biden and Xi to figure out “where each other’s red lines are.” Even that may be a lot to ask, though. The United States’ official position regarding Taiwan has always been intentionally vague, though Biden’s gaffes have made it even more convoluted over the past two years. Lifting sanctions could also make Biden appear weak in comparison to a resurgent Chinese economic and military expansion campaign.

Meanwhile, Xi is riding high after securing an unprecedented third term in power. He has openly stated his plans to further expand China’s stature on the world stage as a global economic and military force to be reckoned with. Few expect him to agree to any limits on those ambitions in order to gain concessions from the west. And any promises that Xi does happen to make will have to be taken with a large grain of salt. China made all sorts of promises during the Paris climate treaty meeting and they have violated each and every one of them. They are unlikely to simply abandon their dreams of retaking Taiwan, either.

So in summary, what should we expect from this summit? I’ll have to mostly agree with the AP on this one and just say… probably not much. But the possibility exists that Biden could screw this up if his mind wanders in the middle of the conference, sending our relationship with China further down the tubes. Let’s cross our fingers and hope that doesn’t happen.