White voters: In each of these states, Biden’s share of the White vote is currently larger than Clinton’s was in 2016. And there has been a shift among White voters with college degrees in particular — a pattern we’ve seen across the battleground states. In 2016, Mr. Trump won this group by double digits in all three states. Now Biden leads among them in North Carolina, is neck and neck with Mr. Trump in Florida, and has dramatically reduced the president’s margin in Georgia.

Biden currently leads among White women with college degrees in Florida and North Carolina, and across all three states, it’s not the lead that tells the story, it’s the shifts from four years ago that does. Biden’s 52% in Florida is up from 37% that Clinton got; his 45% in Georgia up from 34% from Clinton; his 56% in North Carolina is 11 points better than Clinton.

In Georgia, White voters without college degrees — both men and women — tend to like how Mr. Trump handles himself personally and dislike Biden’s approach. These voters were a big part of Mr. Trump’s winning coalition in 2016, and they continue to back him in strong numbers. White evangelicals, who made up more than a third of the electorate in Georgia and North Carolina in 2016, continue to support the president by large majorities in these states.