China this week announced it will suspend all fuel exports this month to keep its domestic market supplied. Also this week, President Donald Trump demanded that Germany and France release 120 million barrels of diesel from their storage or get hit with a U.S. diesel export ban. Europe is running out of options to stay well supplied with a critical fuel.
Diesel is the fuel, on which any economy runs. While it may feature less commonly in passenger cars these days, diesel is the default fuel for heavy machinery, agriculture, and freight transport. This makes import-dependent nations especially vulnerable to the kind of shock that the world is experiencing right now, and Europe is full of import-dependent nations.
According to Euronews, gasoline prices in the European Union have added some 29% since the start of the year, while diesel fuel prices have swelled by 40%. ECB officials expected diesel margins to peak this month, citing peak gasoline margins in August, after which they declined, but it does not seem like their prediction will come true as China just imposed a fuel export ban on its refiners. Chinese refiners are canceling gasoline and jet fuel shipments as well.
Meanwhile, diesel imports into Europe last month reached the lowest September total on record, Vortexa warned in a report earlier this week. The monthly imports stood at just 1 million barrels daily, which was as much as 600,000 barrels daily lower than diesel imports for September 2025. What’s more, “Diesel on the water pointed to Europe is more than 25% below last year’s levels, all points indicating that October will be another month of weak arrivals,” Vortexa analyst Mick Strauttman wrote.
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