In April 1997, then-German President Roman Herzog declared that his country was in need of a Ruck—a jolt. He meant that Germany had to undertake deep reforms to break out of national lethargy and face the challenges of the twenty-first century. Many of the issues he identified remain unresolved today, including economic deregulation, labor-market flexibility, and digitalization. Yet a very different kind of jolt may now be approaching, one likely to send shock waves through Germany and beyond.
On September 6, elections will take place in the small central German state of Sachsen-Anhalt, part of the former East Germany. The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to win. Currently polling above 40 percent, it could conceivably secure an absolute majority in the state legislature in Magdeburg. Germany’s system of proportional representation includes a 5 percent threshold that keeps low-scoring parties out of parliament. If several smaller parties fail to cross that threshold, an AfD vote share well below 50 percent could therefore translate into a majority of seats.
The AfD began in 2013 as a predominantly economically liberal and Euroskeptic party, critical especially of European Union monetary policy. It was quickly transformed, however, as national-conservative and populist forces gained the upper hand. Opposition to Germany’s liberal immigration policies became one of its signature issues. For several years, the party flourished primarily in the states of the former East Germany, where it assumed some of the characteristics of a regional protest party. It has since gained substantial support in western Germany as well, but nowhere is its ascent currently as dramatic as in Sachsen-Anhalt.
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