The U.S. intervention in Venezuela and its withdrawal from dozens of multilateral bodies are reminders that President Donald Trump will exercise power as he sees fit, with scant regard for international law or norms. Even so, hardnosed national interests of the kind that Trump understands continue to underpin the value of the Australia-United States alliance for both parties.
The trick is ensuring that Trump and his team recognise this. Australia could make its case to Trump more effectively by first consulting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi about the concept of strategic indispensability, which permeates the economic security agenda she is driving.
Whatever Trump’s faults, there remains no substitute for U.S. power. While Australia needs to strengthen its military and develop national resilience, achieving self-reliance is unrealistic. As Defence Minister Richard Marles has said, the real threat is not invasion; it is the potential for a hostile power, most likely China, to coerce Australia by targeting its economic connections to the region and the world. Securing economic lifelines, such as critical sea lanes, requires dependable and capable allies. Whatever plausible constellation of regional partners Australia could assemble, it probably would not deter Beijing’s coercion unless the U.S. were involved. And the risks of failure are stark: acquiescence to a Sinocentric regional order would challenge the freedoms and way of life Australians hold dear. Japan faces the same dilemma, only more acutely due to its proximity to China.
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