Now that the Big Beautiful bill has passed, Republicans in Congress want to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 while at the same time not adding more $trillions to the national debt. The Congressional Budget Office has found that extending the tax cuts would probably stimulate the economy in the short run but possibly shrink it in the long run. Both parties know how important it is to grow the economy to increase government revenues.
If Congress doesn’t extend the TCJA, the expiration of many of the provisions on Jan 1, 2026, will lead to higher taxes. According to the Urban-Brookings Tax policy Center, Americans’ federal taxes would rise on average about 7.5% (an increase of $2,100) on 68% of Americans. Conversely, those in the bottom 40% would see 2.8% to 3.3% increases in after tax income and those in the top 20% would see 3.8% increases in after tax income in 2026.
If the TCJA is not renewed individual tax rates will increase, standard deductions will decrease, and the child tax credit will expire. More taxpayers will be subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Small businesses will face higher tax rates and many provisions benefiting businesses will expire. Higher taxes will lead to decreased consumer spending which slows economic growth.
Decreased business investment will cause decreased economic and job growth.
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