Recently the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) released Power Trends 2025.  This is the NYISO’s annual description of factors influencing New York State’s power grid and wholesale electricity markets.  It suggests that there are looming issues with New York’s aspirational net-zero transition plans that must be similar to transition plans at all other jurisdictions.

Overview

In 2019 Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act (Climate Act) legislation established a “Net Zero” target (85% reduction in GHG emissions and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050.  Since then, the State has been trying to implement the Scoping Plan recommendations through regulations, proceedings, and legislation.  One law is Public Service Law Section 66-P Establishment of a renewable energy program that requires the Public Service Commission to establish a program to meet the interim targets for 70% of the energy delivered in 2030 “shall be generated by renewable energy systems” and that “by the year two thousand forty the statewide electrical demand system will be zero emissions”.

The Power Trends Resources landing page provides documentation and links to the Power Trends 2025 report itself, and a Power Trends Fact Sheet.  A press release offers a third summary of the report.  This post describes the takeaways promoted by NYISO in those documents.

Reliability Margins

The Fact Sheet, Power Trends Report, and Press Release emphasize a concern about declining reliability margins.  The Press Release explains:

Generator deactivations are outpacing new supply additions. Electrification programs and new large-load customers associated with economic development initiatives are pushing projected demand higher. Together, these forces are also narrowing reliability margins across New York and increasing the risk of future reliability needs.

Recent Power Trend reports have included the declining reliability margins issue.  The following figure shows last year’s status compared to this year.  The decline in margin is mostly because fossil units are retiring faster than zero emissions replacements are coming on-line.