It has now been almost five years since the United States officially kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program. The Pentagon’s move followed Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to purchase Russian anti-aircraft missiles advanced enough to expose NATO tactics and put American assets at risk.

As a consolation prize, the Biden administration offered Turkey [Türkiye] new F-16s and upgrade packages for Turkey’s existing fleet. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan appeared to tie new F-16s for Turkey to Erdogan agreeing to lift his de facto veto on Sweden’s NATO accession.

Such a trade was always unwise given how an erratic Turkey with advanced weaponry offset any gains to NATO of Sweden’s accession. Erdogan’s repeated threats to Greece, claims upon Greek territory, and overflights by drone and F-16 of Greek islands raise the prospect of an intra-NATO conflict. While Sweden’s accession might be symbolically important to NATO, it adds little that NATO members cannot achieve by cooperating with Sweden outside the alliance framework.