Less than a week after former President Donald Trump was indicted on 37 federal charges tied to his handling of classified documents, his support among Republican and Republican leaning voters remains largely unchanged, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. The poll was conducted from June 8th through 12th. When Republican and Republican leaning voters were given a list of 10 candidates seeking the GOP nomination for president: 53 percent support Trump while 23 percent support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence, former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie each receive 4 percent support. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy receives 3 percent support and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson receives 1 percent support. All other listed Republican candidates receive less than 1 percent.

In a hypothetical general election matchup, President Joe Biden has a slight lead over Trump 48 – 44 percent among all registered voters. In Quinnipiac University’s previous national poll on May 24th, Biden received 48 percent and Trump received 46 percent. Today’s results continue a string of close head-to-head results between Biden and Trump since Quinnipiac University started asking this question in February 2023.

[A couple of points, one specific here and another more generally. First, the impact of the indictment may take a while to be felt, but it’s very interesting that Trump didn’t get a momentary bump upward like he did with the Bragg indictment. Pollster Tim Malloy expresses surprise that no immediate damage was apparent, but I would have expected more of a rally effect. Secondly and more generally, don’t take primary polling too seriously until we get much closer to actual decisions on ballot-casting. That will come after Thanksgiving, and even then, watch the state polls rather than the national polls. — Ed]