Have Dems completely abandoned working-class Americans?

Working-class preferences by race, gender, and age for 2020 were estimated and then moved toward the GOP by 10 margin points. These preferences were then applied to the projected structure of the electorate next fall and in future elections.

In 2024, the shift toward Republicans among the working class produces a 312-226 GOP electoral vote majority. States that moved into the GOP column are Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania by three points; Arizona and Georgia by four points; and Wisconsin by five.

The format showed the GOP winning the electoral vote through 2040.