The war in Ukraine continues on day 361. Russian forces are still in search of a breakthrough in the Donbas, without any success as the Ukrainian military continues to put a stiff resistance all across the battlefield.
The Russian military has committed well over 90 percent of all its ground forces in Ukraine, according to Chairman of the Military Committee of NATO and Royal Netherlands Navy Admiral Rob Bauer.
That means that the Kremlin has almost no reserves to pull from, and it depends on further force generation methods to bolster its size and fill the gaps created by the war.
[A number of people insist that Putin can overcome this the way the Soviets did 1941-45, by massive mobilization. There are a couple of important differences. First, the Soviets managed that feat by significant armament from the West (through the Lend-Lease plan initially, and then direct aid and the Second Fronts later). Second, the Soviets were dealing with an invading army and a truly existential threat. And third, fertility rates were higher in that period, a more minor point but perhaps still germane. They don’t have the resources for that kind of mobilization now, not even in human terms and certainly not in materiel or expertise. The better analogy — although still imperfect — is probably the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan, which also ended up having little strategic value even after its initial capture. — Ed]
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