It is easy to understand why Americans and Europeans resent Russia for its brutal Ukraine invasion. What’s harder to understand is why we aren’t trying to find a negotiated diplomatic settlement to the war’s end, especially as neither side looks like it can achieve a fast victory, and Ukraine itself is being chewed to bits. The Russians will never let Crimea go, nor the Donbass region. It’s insane for Kiev to think it can recover them — but that’s Kiev’s policy, and the US is backing it. Are you aware, reader, that there is a major Russian naval base in Crimea? Russia’s not going anywhere. Would you, if you were them?

I recently read a private analysis from a European investment house, concluding that “We are on the brink of World War III.” The firm is advising its investors about the risk to their money from geopolitical events it deems possible or likely in the coming year. The report faults European governments for being the “vassals” of Washington, and following the US into a war that is deeply against broad European interests, economic and otherwise. It makes a credible case that Russia knows that it’s in an “existential” war with the West (though Western publics seem utterly unaware of how deadly serious things have gotten), and that an invasion of Europe’s eastern borders cannot be ruled out if NATO continues to escalate amid the expected spring 2023 Russian offensive. The hedge fund managers are preparing their investors for the real possibility of nuclear war, at least on European battlefields. This, they say, is how far the US is willing to go to maintain a world in which America is the top dog.

It’s a frightening scenario, but not remotely far-fetched.

[I don’t agree with some of what Dreher argues, but it’s worth reading and debating. Actually, this is the topic of our next Amiable Skeptics show for Monday. Adam and I debate this issue at length. And as always, Adam and I debate … amiably. — Ed]