The number one question I am asked by Republican voters is: would DeSantis run against Trump? They assume, probably accurately, that he won’t. DeSantis lately seems to be trending away from the broad electoral appeal he might theoretically have. Sending migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, backing gubernatorial nominees Doug Mastriano and Kari Lake, and speaking to the National Conservatism conference all appeal to voters with an appetite for red meat. But they also could be interpreted as the moves of a politician more interested in appealing to the right flank of his party than gearing up for a national campaign.
If Trump is nominated, Republicans know they will inevitably have to thread the eye of the needle to get an Electoral College win. The question DeSantis needs to ask himself is whether he wants to be essentially a Trump imitator — even down to many of his adopted mannerisms — or a leader who could supplant Trump and, as Olsen suggests, unify the country with a broader range of support than just Republican voters.
DeSantis is in a difficult position. If he challenges Trump for the nomination, even with strong backing from a broader range of Republicans, he would not be favored to win. Yet if he were to skip 2024 and not challenge Trump, then his light is only likely to dim with time. The successful navigation of the pandemic becomes less of an attribute as it recedes into the rearview mirror. And 2022’s midterms will bring a new group of faces into prominence, many of whom hold ambitions for the White House.
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