Eleven of Trump’s picks also lost races. A pattern emerged in these results: when an incumbent Republican built a conservative record and signaled loyalty to Trump, voters were more willing to forgive them for occasional apostasies.

The strongest examples came from Georgia. Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger are very conservative Trump supporters, but they refused to try to overturn their state’s vote for Joe Biden in 2020. Trump loudly promoted revenge-driven challengers against them — along with two other statewide candidates — but Georgians stuck with their incumbents.

Similarly, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) — who had criticized Trump but voted against impeachment — beat back a challenge from a Trump endorsee. And conservative Idaho Gov. Brad Little dispatched Lieutenant Gov. Janice McGeachin, who had clashed with Little on covid-19 restrictions.

Not every Republican fits this pattern: Charles Herbster of Nebraska lost to establishment-backed Jim Pillen after groping allegations against Herbster surfaced, and Trump disciple Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) was beset by scandal. But, generally speaking, GOP voters were most willing to push back against Trump when he picked a fight with a loyal Republican.