The only Russian-held city on the western side of the Dnipro River, Kherson’s fate may be a weathervane for the course of the war. If Ukraine retakes the city and disables key bridges, it could effectively end Russia’s advances from the south by preventing both sides from crossing the river. But if Russia manages to hold onto Kherson, the city could become the gateway for a new Russian offensive to conquer the key port city of Odesa…

Ukraine’s counteroffensive can’t come soon enough though, as occupied Kherson has quickly turned into a nightmare for its residents. A new Human Rights Watch report details how Russian occupiers in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions arbitrarily “disappear,” unlawfully detain, and torture those at their mercy. Dozens of residents describe brutal interrogations and torture, including one man beaten with a baseball bat and others who suffered electric shocks and burns. Two Territorial Defense fighters died in captivity. Moscow is in the process of officially annexing Kherson and has now deployed officials to conduct a faux Crimea-style referendum on joining Russia, something that could give legal cover for Russia to deploy conscripts to the area. With Russian forces exhausted from near-continuous fighting, the ability to send fresh, if unseasoned, forces into the area would bolster their defenses and give Moscow more options for a new southern offensive.

Reports like this make clear that the atrocities committed by Russian forces in places like Bucha and Irpin were not isolated incidents and that abuse is widespread in territory held by Russia. This only heightens the urgency for Ukraine to liberate occupied territory, and to ensure Kyiv has the equipment and training needed to succeed. Despite some calls from prominent Westerners in recent months for Ukraine to negotiate an end to the fighting and potentially cede territory to Russia, these continuing abuses illustrate how the real cost of such a deal would be paid by those Ukrainians sold off to Moscow.