Can Ukrainian forces recapture Kherson from Russia?

Sergiy Khlan, an aide to the administrative head of the Kherson region, told Ukrainian TV a turning point had been reached, and the region “will definitely be liberated by September”. It is a bold claim on the available evidence, and perhaps not surprisingly, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, instead talked about liberating Kherson “step by step”…

If cutting off the city by destroying the bridges is challenging, then capturing it, given the remaining civilian population, will be harder. Russia has shown it was willing to destroy cities such as Mariupol and Sievierodonetsk before capturing them. But for Ukraine – seeking to liberate its own territory – that is not obviously an option. Dislodging the Russians may be difficult if they choose to stay in the city itself.

Nor is it obvious that the arrival of one longer-range weapon can create the conditions for a more rapid overall advance. Ukraine has no meaningful air power available, so it must rely on an assembling a preponderance of ground forces against an enemy that has held the city for nearly five months. Meanwhile, western supplies continue to arrive gradually rather than in the numbers Ukraine needs.