That will be hard to do if Russia throws units into the fight at the height of the Spring mud season, when the ground is too soft and wet for trucks and mobile artillery to move off the roads without getting stuck – something that happened north of Kyiv, leaving some convoys stranded and vulnerable to attack.
That season will end some time in May, but likely not soon enough for any significant campaign win before Putin’s Victory Day parade, according to a Moscow-based military analyst who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive matters. New Russian laws tightly restrict comment and reporting on the war.
The continued failure of Russian forces to take major towns such as Kharkiv means they can’t use the main Ukrainian highways to move equipment and are forced to send columns of tanks and trucks over much smaller, slower roads. These are better suited for ambush, especially as trees are regaining leaf cover, the analyst said.
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