Big change in the military is typically framed as a “revolution” or “transformation” and is almost always about “innovating” and “adapting” to new technology. Yet the most important—and most worrisome—form of change is usually not driven by technology.
Simply, it is the loss of military effectiveness, often coming as a rapid-onset decline. Armed forces that have reached “peak war” status in victorious and decisive battle can—and do—quickly lose their combat edge. An extreme example is the U.S. Army during the American Civil War. In 1865, it was the greatest army on earth. Within months it was demobilized, its expertise gone.
Of course, some of this is natural. Long-service legionary armies are drained by years of peace. Battle-scarred veterans age out and retire, and junior assault leaders rise at last to command an army of green young officers untested in combat. Next time they lose. This is the way of things.
Sometimes, when an adversary surprises with a hot new “wonder weapon,” technology can suddenly shift the goal posts of military effectiveness. Yet there are other, and arguably more likely, ways in which a “peak war” force can lose its edge, and fast. Here are four non-tech roads to rapid onset military decline, with historical examples that should feel familiar. So too should the danger, which lies in an unravelling that goes unnoticed or denied, and thus unaddressed, until it is too late to remedy.
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